Hull and Portsmouth could be dramatically remodelled, suggests report
guardian.co.uk, Friday 15 January 2010
Hull could be transformed into a Venice-like waterworld and Portsmouth into a south coast version of Amalfi, engineers and architects have claimed in a study of options for developing Britain's coastal cities in the face of rising sea levels.
The Institution of Civil Engineers and the Royal Institute of British Architects yesterday warned the future of cities including London, Bristol and Liverpool was at risk from seas which the Environment Agency predict could rise by as much as 1.9m by 2095 in the event of a dramatic melting of the Greenland ice sheet.
The report, Facing up to Rising Sea Levels. Retreat? Defence? Attack?, suggests swaths of Hull and Portsmouth's city centres could be allowed to flood over the next 100 years and large parts of the populations moved out.
In a model that explores managed retreat from the coast in some areas, Hull's historic city centre would be limited to an island reached by bridges and Venetian-style water taxis, while in Portsmouth large parts of Portsea island would be given back to the sea while new "hillside living" developments would be built on densely packed hillside terraces, akin to the towns of Italy's Amalfi coast. "The scenarios we have created are extreme, but it is an extreme threat we are facing," said Ruth Reed, Riba president. "Approximately 10 million people live in flood-risk areas in England and Wales, with 2.6m properties directly at risk of flooding."
Other options include building out into rising waters using piers and platforms to create new habitable space – a strategy known as "attack". In Hull this could involve floating disused oil rigs up the Humber and reusing them for offices, homes and university buildings, while in Portsmouth two-storey piers could be built with the lower tier used for traffic and the top tier used for pedestrian space.
Architect David West, one of the report's author's, admitted the proposals were "blue sky thinking" and uncosted, but said they had the potential to relieve pressure for housing on inland sites. "I think the concept of arriving at Hull as if you were arriving at Venice airport and taking a boat into the city is really exciting."
The proposals were met with scepticism in Portsmouth. "A retreating coastline in this area would have a significant detrimental impact on the internationally designated harbours," said Bret Davies, a coastal strategy manager at Portsmouth city council.
The Environment Agency's coastal policy adviser, Nick Hardiman, warned that extending into the sea was likely to be too expensive and structures were not likely to be sustainable.In the next financial year the Environment Agency will spend £570m on building and maintaining flood defences.
Friday, 15 January 2010
Banks attacked for failures to meet Equator Principles on environment
Campaign groups say funding is still going to projects that damage planet
Nick Mathiason
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 14 January 2010 18.05 GMT
The world's biggest banks are continuing to lend money to some of the most environmentally damaging energy and infrastructure projects despite a supposed groundbreaking protocol they agreed to seven years ago that was meant to prevent such abuses.
The claim is in a letter sent to 60 banks, including Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland, by 86 campaign groups from 27 countries pouring scorn on the Equator Principles, signed to great fanfare in 2003. It comes as banks are come under the spotlight for funding huge hydrocarbon energy projects that fuel climate change.
"We find ourselves continuing to campaign against the very same projects that we expected the principles to prevent or significantly improve," the letter states. "Supersized dams blocking life-supporting rivers, driving thousands of people from their submerged villages and lands; huge mining projects scarring entire mountains and polluting rivers and seas with their waste; oil and gas pipelines carrying their toxic load straight through devastated forests and threatening marine sanctuaries; coal power plants belching out millions of tons of greenhouse gases into our already fatigued atmosphere; enormous paper mills with insatiable appetites that devour the last wilderness areas, etc. Much to our disappointment, the principles allow for all of these disgraces to proceed, only now in an 'Equator compliant' mode."
Banks are to meet campaign groups in Zurich next month to discuss possible reform that would limit the funding of energy projects that exacerbate climate change and make funding decisions more transparent. Among the projects causing concern is the Kashagan oil field in Kazakhstan, which is estimated to hold 13bn barrels of oil, making it the largest new find worldwide in more than a decade.
Bank insiders reject criticism of the principles arguing they provide a common standard to guide project finance decisions to which more than 60 institutions have signed up. Further reform of the principles would be a matter for individual bank groups which could destroy the existing consensus, the source added.
But campaigners state: "We are disappointed with the lack of transparency, accountability, effectiveness and true compliance with the principles and lack of progress in their development."
Nick Mathiason
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 14 January 2010 18.05 GMT
The world's biggest banks are continuing to lend money to some of the most environmentally damaging energy and infrastructure projects despite a supposed groundbreaking protocol they agreed to seven years ago that was meant to prevent such abuses.
The claim is in a letter sent to 60 banks, including Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland, by 86 campaign groups from 27 countries pouring scorn on the Equator Principles, signed to great fanfare in 2003. It comes as banks are come under the spotlight for funding huge hydrocarbon energy projects that fuel climate change.
"We find ourselves continuing to campaign against the very same projects that we expected the principles to prevent or significantly improve," the letter states. "Supersized dams blocking life-supporting rivers, driving thousands of people from their submerged villages and lands; huge mining projects scarring entire mountains and polluting rivers and seas with their waste; oil and gas pipelines carrying their toxic load straight through devastated forests and threatening marine sanctuaries; coal power plants belching out millions of tons of greenhouse gases into our already fatigued atmosphere; enormous paper mills with insatiable appetites that devour the last wilderness areas, etc. Much to our disappointment, the principles allow for all of these disgraces to proceed, only now in an 'Equator compliant' mode."
Banks are to meet campaign groups in Zurich next month to discuss possible reform that would limit the funding of energy projects that exacerbate climate change and make funding decisions more transparent. Among the projects causing concern is the Kashagan oil field in Kazakhstan, which is estimated to hold 13bn barrels of oil, making it the largest new find worldwide in more than a decade.
Bank insiders reject criticism of the principles arguing they provide a common standard to guide project finance decisions to which more than 60 institutions have signed up. Further reform of the principles would be a matter for individual bank groups which could destroy the existing consensus, the source added.
But campaigners state: "We are disappointed with the lack of transparency, accountability, effectiveness and true compliance with the principles and lack of progress in their development."
Oilrigs should be used for homes in areas at risk of flooding, report says
Ben Webster, Environment Editor
Decommissioned North Sea oil platforms should be towed to the waterfronts of coastal cities at risk of flooding and converted into homes, shops and universities protected from rising sea levels, a study recommends.
Britain should not retreat from the waves but embrace them, adapting to climate change and consequent flooding by building new communities, either on stilts or floating platforms.
A team of senior architects, engineers and civil servants, appointed by the Royal Institute of British Architects and Institution of Civil Engineers, considered the options for responding to a 6ft 6in (2m) rise in sea levels by the end of the century.
UK Climate Projections, published last year by the Government, predicted that sea levels would rise by up to 76cm by 2095 but said that there was small risk of a more rapid melting of the Greenland ice sheet, resulting in a 1.9m rise by the end of the century. About ten million people already live in areas at risk of flooding in England and Wales and the Government spends £570 million a year on coastal defences.
The study, entitled Facing up to Rising Sea Levels, focused on two cities, Kingston-upon-Hull and Portsmouth, where much of the urban area is up to 3m above the high-tide mark. Hull is particularly vulnerable, with a flood in 2007 damaging 8,000 homes, 100 businesses and 91 of the city’s 99 schools.
The study proposed lining Hull’s waterfront with dozens of rigs from depleted North Sea oil and gasfields. Some of the rigs would be devoted to housing while others would become parks or entertainment complexes.
The rigs would be linked by walkways and every third one would have a bridge to the mainland. Energy for the homes and businesses would be generated by tidal-flow turbines suspended under the rigs.
The authors said that this approach would expose much of the existing city to the rising waters because the rigs would occupy areas that could otherwise have been used for concrete flood defences. However, they believe that the economies of coastal cities would be more likely to thrive if they accepted the loss of some areas and focused on building new communities.
“The extreme threat of flooding demands extreme measures be taken. We cannot defend everywhere. Letting water in can be seen in a positive light — not a defeatist policy,” it said.
In Portsmouth, the study recommended building a network of two-tiered piers into the Solent. Traffic would flow along the lower tier and homes and pedestrian areas would be built on top. The piers would act as groynes, reducing the rate of erosion of the coastline. In the existing city, homes would be redesigned with the living space upstairs.
David West, an architect and one of the authors, said: “The typical British approach of patching things up is just not a successful way of responding to rising sea levels. We need to speculate and look ahead 50 to 100 years, not in four-year political cycles. It’s about living with the sea, living with changes and doing something positive.”
Nick Hardiman, the Environment Agency’s coastal policy adviser, said that the study fitted with the agency’s policy of holding or advancing the coastline in some areas but allowing it to be eroded in others. “We need to be prepared for the extreme scenario of a 1.9m rise in the sea level by the end of the century.”
Decommissioned North Sea oil platforms should be towed to the waterfronts of coastal cities at risk of flooding and converted into homes, shops and universities protected from rising sea levels, a study recommends.
Britain should not retreat from the waves but embrace them, adapting to climate change and consequent flooding by building new communities, either on stilts or floating platforms.
A team of senior architects, engineers and civil servants, appointed by the Royal Institute of British Architects and Institution of Civil Engineers, considered the options for responding to a 6ft 6in (2m) rise in sea levels by the end of the century.
UK Climate Projections, published last year by the Government, predicted that sea levels would rise by up to 76cm by 2095 but said that there was small risk of a more rapid melting of the Greenland ice sheet, resulting in a 1.9m rise by the end of the century. About ten million people already live in areas at risk of flooding in England and Wales and the Government spends £570 million a year on coastal defences.
The study, entitled Facing up to Rising Sea Levels, focused on two cities, Kingston-upon-Hull and Portsmouth, where much of the urban area is up to 3m above the high-tide mark. Hull is particularly vulnerable, with a flood in 2007 damaging 8,000 homes, 100 businesses and 91 of the city’s 99 schools.
The study proposed lining Hull’s waterfront with dozens of rigs from depleted North Sea oil and gasfields. Some of the rigs would be devoted to housing while others would become parks or entertainment complexes.
The rigs would be linked by walkways and every third one would have a bridge to the mainland. Energy for the homes and businesses would be generated by tidal-flow turbines suspended under the rigs.
The authors said that this approach would expose much of the existing city to the rising waters because the rigs would occupy areas that could otherwise have been used for concrete flood defences. However, they believe that the economies of coastal cities would be more likely to thrive if they accepted the loss of some areas and focused on building new communities.
“The extreme threat of flooding demands extreme measures be taken. We cannot defend everywhere. Letting water in can be seen in a positive light — not a defeatist policy,” it said.
In Portsmouth, the study recommended building a network of two-tiered piers into the Solent. Traffic would flow along the lower tier and homes and pedestrian areas would be built on top. The piers would act as groynes, reducing the rate of erosion of the coastline. In the existing city, homes would be redesigned with the living space upstairs.
David West, an architect and one of the authors, said: “The typical British approach of patching things up is just not a successful way of responding to rising sea levels. We need to speculate and look ahead 50 to 100 years, not in four-year political cycles. It’s about living with the sea, living with changes and doing something positive.”
Nick Hardiman, the Environment Agency’s coastal policy adviser, said that the study fitted with the agency’s policy of holding or advancing the coastline in some areas but allowing it to be eroded in others. “We need to be prepared for the extreme scenario of a 1.9m rise in the sea level by the end of the century.”
Next few weeks vital for Copenhagen accord, says US climate change envoy
• Obama administration to work closely on formal details• US will not give full ownership of accord to UN
Suzanne Goldenberg, US environment correspondent
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 14 January 2010 19.24 GMT
The next few weeks will be critical in deciding whether the Copenhagen accord succeeds in halting global warming, America's top climate change envoy said today.
"We have an accord that is lumbering down the runway, and we need it to get enough speed so it can take off," Todd Stern, the state department climate change envoy, told an investor meeting at the United Nations in his first public remarks after the Copenhagen summit. "We need to get this up and running."
He said the next year would be critical in fleshing out the details of an accord that - because of the chaos and acrimony surrounding the talks - was only 12 paragraphs long. The first test arrives on 31 January when industrialised countries and the major developing nations make their formal commitments to act on carbon emissions.
Stern said the Obama administration would be working with other countries to try and agree on the institutional structures that will turn the goals of the accord into reality. These include the establishment of a $100bn a year climate fund, action to protect the world's forests, and monitoring of countries' action plans.
He said the accord - though weak - remained the best path to an international treaty that would have the full weight of international law. But, like his deputy Jonathan Pershing, Stern indicated the US would not yield full ownership of the negotiation process to the United Nations.
"Our goal is very simply to design a regime that is going to have the capability to actually help us solve the problem," he said. "One of the frustrations in dealing on the international level is that a lot of focus can be paid to debating whether a particular idea is consistent or not consistent with such-and-such an article of a previous agreement. A lot of attention can be paid to proposals or positions that are not very well tethered to reality. We all need to be focused on setting up a structure, and setting up a regime that can solve this problem."
The frustration of the US and other developed nations with the UN process became clear well ahead of Copenhagen. In the weeks ahead of the summit, the Danes, together with a group of about 30 countries began trying to negotiate a more limited agreement - outside the scope of the UN.
That effort - exposed in the first days of the summit by the Danish text leaked to the Guardian - ultimately backfired, Stern admitted. "That led to a huge uproar, and accusations against the Danish presidency that they had been conducting a secret effort without consulting others," he said. "This had the intent and certainly the effect of undermining the credibility of Denmark."
However, Stern also indicated that the Obama administration had come to power a year ago with doubts about yielding the primary control of climate change negotiations to the UN. "We came in with quite a strong view that we needed to set up a stronger group of countries as well as operating in the larger multilateral arena," he said. "For that reason we took the set of countries that President Bush had initiated, rechristened it and gave it a different mission."
In Stern's view, the summit had already been compromised by a lack of real progress of negotiations conducted within the formal UN structure. "The reality is that the formal negotiating process simply had not made significant progress on the key issues", including setting emissions targets, mobilising a climate fund, technology transfer, and transparency, he said.
He echoed Pershing, , who yesterday suggested the summit had been perilously close to failure in its final hours. "We came within a hair's breadth of collapse," Stern said.
Suzanne Goldenberg, US environment correspondent
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 14 January 2010 19.24 GMT
The next few weeks will be critical in deciding whether the Copenhagen accord succeeds in halting global warming, America's top climate change envoy said today.
"We have an accord that is lumbering down the runway, and we need it to get enough speed so it can take off," Todd Stern, the state department climate change envoy, told an investor meeting at the United Nations in his first public remarks after the Copenhagen summit. "We need to get this up and running."
He said the next year would be critical in fleshing out the details of an accord that - because of the chaos and acrimony surrounding the talks - was only 12 paragraphs long. The first test arrives on 31 January when industrialised countries and the major developing nations make their formal commitments to act on carbon emissions.
Stern said the Obama administration would be working with other countries to try and agree on the institutional structures that will turn the goals of the accord into reality. These include the establishment of a $100bn a year climate fund, action to protect the world's forests, and monitoring of countries' action plans.
He said the accord - though weak - remained the best path to an international treaty that would have the full weight of international law. But, like his deputy Jonathan Pershing, Stern indicated the US would not yield full ownership of the negotiation process to the United Nations.
"Our goal is very simply to design a regime that is going to have the capability to actually help us solve the problem," he said. "One of the frustrations in dealing on the international level is that a lot of focus can be paid to debating whether a particular idea is consistent or not consistent with such-and-such an article of a previous agreement. A lot of attention can be paid to proposals or positions that are not very well tethered to reality. We all need to be focused on setting up a structure, and setting up a regime that can solve this problem."
The frustration of the US and other developed nations with the UN process became clear well ahead of Copenhagen. In the weeks ahead of the summit, the Danes, together with a group of about 30 countries began trying to negotiate a more limited agreement - outside the scope of the UN.
That effort - exposed in the first days of the summit by the Danish text leaked to the Guardian - ultimately backfired, Stern admitted. "That led to a huge uproar, and accusations against the Danish presidency that they had been conducting a secret effort without consulting others," he said. "This had the intent and certainly the effect of undermining the credibility of Denmark."
However, Stern also indicated that the Obama administration had come to power a year ago with doubts about yielding the primary control of climate change negotiations to the UN. "We came in with quite a strong view that we needed to set up a stronger group of countries as well as operating in the larger multilateral arena," he said. "For that reason we took the set of countries that President Bush had initiated, rechristened it and gave it a different mission."
In Stern's view, the summit had already been compromised by a lack of real progress of negotiations conducted within the formal UN structure. "The reality is that the formal negotiating process simply had not made significant progress on the key issues", including setting emissions targets, mobilising a climate fund, technology transfer, and transparency, he said.
He echoed Pershing, , who yesterday suggested the summit had been perilously close to failure in its final hours. "We came within a hair's breadth of collapse," Stern said.
Investors urge governments to take immediate action on climate change
First major gathering of business leaders since Copenhagen warn of lost opportunity to create low-carbon economy
Suzanne Goldenberg, US environment correspondent
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 14 January 2010 18.17 GMT
Over 450 investors controlling $13tn of assets yesterday urged world governments to pre-empt an international climate change treaty and take immediate action on global warming, or risk losing the opportunity to establish a clean and sustainable low-carbon economy.
At a conference at the United Nations in New York, the first gathering of business leaders since the disappointment of last month's Copenhagen climate summit said governments — even in the absence of a treaty — must adopt policies that give a clear sense of direction towards a new clean energy economy. Copenhagen made only "incremental" progress, the investors said in a statement and governments worldwide needed to act now to reset their domestic agendas, with policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions and to lay the foundations of a carbon market.
"Given that Copenhagen was a missed opportunity to create one fully functional international carbon market, it is more important than ever that individual governments implement regional and domestic policy change to stimulate the creation of a low carbon economy," said Peter Dunsombe, chairman of the IIGCC, a network of European investors. "Leaders from both developed and developing countries need to act now to compensate for the lack of progress."
The Obama administration, like other governments of industrialised countries, has acknowledged the private sector will provide the majority of funding for the transition from fossil fuels to renewable, low-carbon energy sources.
"Investors remain committed to taking action," the group of 450 investors from Europe, America and Australia said. "But for us to deploy capital at the scale needed to truly catalyse a low-carbon economy, policy makers must act swiftly." Before the Copenhagen conference, the economist Lord Stern, and the head of the UN Environment Programme Achim Steiner, told the Guardian that a failure would be "very damaging" to investor confidence.
The cautious assessment on the outcome of the Copenhagen climate change summit was echoed by the Obama administration's top climate change envoy, Todd Stern. He told the conference, which was organised by the Ceres green investment network, thathis year would be crucial in determining whether the world was truly on course towards reaching a fully fledged treaty to deal with climate change.
He said America and other countries would be working hard to flesh out a 12-paragraph accord brokered by Obama and the leaders of China, India, Brazil, and South Africa, especially on sharing of clean energy technology, and the mobilising of a global fund to help poor countries adapt to climate change. "We have an accord that is lumbering down the runway, and we need to get it enough speed so that it can take off," Stern said.
The investors said it was critical that governments – including the US – adopt rigorous targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade as well as for the distant date of 2050. In addition to renewable energy, they also called for policies to speed the development of green building practices, cleaner cars and public transit systems.
"What we need most is government action both in the US and throughout the world," said Anne Stausboll, the chief executive of the California Public Employees Retirement System (Calpers) America's largest public pension fund. Calpers has $1bn of its $205bn assets in green investment, and was ready to do more, but Stausboll — like others — said that Congress first needed to put in place a climate change law.
Suzanne Goldenberg, US environment correspondent
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 14 January 2010 18.17 GMT
Over 450 investors controlling $13tn of assets yesterday urged world governments to pre-empt an international climate change treaty and take immediate action on global warming, or risk losing the opportunity to establish a clean and sustainable low-carbon economy.
At a conference at the United Nations in New York, the first gathering of business leaders since the disappointment of last month's Copenhagen climate summit said governments — even in the absence of a treaty — must adopt policies that give a clear sense of direction towards a new clean energy economy. Copenhagen made only "incremental" progress, the investors said in a statement and governments worldwide needed to act now to reset their domestic agendas, with policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions and to lay the foundations of a carbon market.
"Given that Copenhagen was a missed opportunity to create one fully functional international carbon market, it is more important than ever that individual governments implement regional and domestic policy change to stimulate the creation of a low carbon economy," said Peter Dunsombe, chairman of the IIGCC, a network of European investors. "Leaders from both developed and developing countries need to act now to compensate for the lack of progress."
The Obama administration, like other governments of industrialised countries, has acknowledged the private sector will provide the majority of funding for the transition from fossil fuels to renewable, low-carbon energy sources.
"Investors remain committed to taking action," the group of 450 investors from Europe, America and Australia said. "But for us to deploy capital at the scale needed to truly catalyse a low-carbon economy, policy makers must act swiftly." Before the Copenhagen conference, the economist Lord Stern, and the head of the UN Environment Programme Achim Steiner, told the Guardian that a failure would be "very damaging" to investor confidence.
The cautious assessment on the outcome of the Copenhagen climate change summit was echoed by the Obama administration's top climate change envoy, Todd Stern. He told the conference, which was organised by the Ceres green investment network, thathis year would be crucial in determining whether the world was truly on course towards reaching a fully fledged treaty to deal with climate change.
He said America and other countries would be working hard to flesh out a 12-paragraph accord brokered by Obama and the leaders of China, India, Brazil, and South Africa, especially on sharing of clean energy technology, and the mobilising of a global fund to help poor countries adapt to climate change. "We have an accord that is lumbering down the runway, and we need to get it enough speed so that it can take off," Stern said.
The investors said it was critical that governments – including the US – adopt rigorous targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade as well as for the distant date of 2050. In addition to renewable energy, they also called for policies to speed the development of green building practices, cleaner cars and public transit systems.
"What we need most is government action both in the US and throughout the world," said Anne Stausboll, the chief executive of the California Public Employees Retirement System (Calpers) America's largest public pension fund. Calpers has $1bn of its $205bn assets in green investment, and was ready to do more, but Stausboll — like others — said that Congress first needed to put in place a climate change law.
How to profit from the cold snap
Ian Cowie consults investment experts on the best companies to benefit from frozen Britain.
Published: 7:18AM GMT 14 Jan 2010
Extreme weather has inconvenienced millions of people in recent weeks, but some investors argue it's an ill wind that blows no good.
They predict there will be winners as well as losers when the financial effects of this winter are weighed up.
City cynics claim the smart money has been piling into companies that will benefit from a cold snap ever since last month's international conference on global warming.
But others say there is further to go. For example, gas and electricity providers' share prices were largely left behind by last year's stock market rally.
These firms are paying much higher dividends than more fashionable sectors which could prove more vulnerable to setbacks in 2010. Whatever happens to the economy and discretionary consumer spending, people are likely to want to continue heating their homes and cooking their food.
While it would be wrong to overstate the long-term impact on profits of a few weeks' freezing conditions, Your Money asked a selection of financial advisers to pick stocks that might benefit from a re-rating prompted by bad weather.
Keith Bowman of Hargreaves Lansdown wealth managers said: "National Grid is situated at the heart of Britain's electricity and gas network and is one of the biggest energy companies in the world.
"The company also owns and operates the high-pressure gas transmission system in Britain, with this distribution business delivering gas to 11 million homes and businesses.
"It also distributes electricity to nearly five million customers in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York and Rhode Island. In addition to its transmission and distribution business, the company also operates a number of related businesses including liquefied natural gas (LNG) importation and storage, metering, interconnectors and land remediation."
National Grid was trading around 647p this week, compared to a 52-week high of 682p, and yielding 5.6pc net of basic rate tax with the dividend covered 1.4 times by earnings.
Mr Bowman also favours BP. He said: "British Petroleum is a major global oil and energy provider. The group is currently the UK's second biggest company by market capitalisation – HSBC is number one – with a stock market value of over £115 bn. BP employs over 90,000 people globally, conducting exploration and production operations in over 25 countries worldwide.
"The group's third-quarter results last October saw the company comfortably exceeding analysts' forecasts. While the global economic downturn continued to impact, an improved operational performance combined with additional cost savings helped to cushion the fall.
"Furthermore, a perceived recovery in the global economy, aided by the current cold snap impacting on much of the northern hemisphere, has recently seen energy prices rising, a fact that should assist the group going forward."
BP was trading near its annual high of about 633p this week, yielding 5.4pc net, with dividends covered two times by earnings.
Peter Day, a partner at stockbrokers Killik & Co, said: "While the recent cold snap is bad news for companies such as retailers where they may see reduced footfall, this is not necessarily the case for all. Specifically, we would highlight the utility companies, which have lagged the market rebound over the course of the last nine months.
"As uncertainties resurface in the economy, investors should look towards the certainty of the utility sector where investors can benefit from a defensive earnings stream and attractive dividend yields. We believe that interest rates are going to remain lower for longer than many forecasters predict and this high level of dividend income may become increasingly attractive.
"Centrica secures and supplies gas and electricity to residential and business customers throughout the UK. These activities account for 90pc of group profits, but it also has operations in North America and Continental Europe.
"In the UK, the company, operating as British Gas, is the biggest retail energy supplier, with a 44pc share in gas and 22pc share in electricity. There are some concerns surrounding the health of the competition in the UK retail business, potentially leaving Centrica well placed to take market share and improve profit margins over time.
"The group has also made strong progress with its other strategic priorities – improved customer service and cost cutting.
"Despite the increased level of acquisition activity, the balance sheet remains robust, with net debt of £2.5bn. As a result, the group has firepower for further acquisitions and the flexibility to pay an attractive yield. We believe the current level provides an excellent long-term opportunity to buy a well-managed company with a strong brand, high market share and scope to add shareholder value."
Centrica was trading around 279p this week, yielding 4.4pc, with dividends covered 1.4 times by earnings.
Even as fears recede that swine flu would cause massive casualties, winter and its associated illnesses may prompt a reassessment of the defensive attractions of pharmaceutical stocks.
Mr Day said: "GlaxoSmithKline is a global pharmaceutical and consumer health-care company with a broad-based drug portfolio in central nervous system, respiratory, vaccines, oncology and anti-viral markets.
''The group is less exposed to patent expiries than most of the peer group, with only 25pc of its sales vulnerable to generic competition between now and 2012. Its cost-reduction programme has already delivered £1 bn of cumulative annualised savings and the group is still targeting £1.7 bn of savings by 2011.
''The company is financially strong and management has postponed the share buyback programme to focus on acquisition opportunities provided by the market downturn.
"However, the group has dismissed the prospect of a large-scale merger and will instead focus on smaller deals, with the emphasis likely to be placed on vaccines, over-the-counter medicines, consumer health care and expansion in emerging markets."
GlaxoSmithKline was trading around 1290p this week, yielding 4.7pc, with the dividend covered 1.9 times by earnings.
George Godber from Matterley Asset Management – part of Charles Stanley – picked some smaller companies. He said: "Nationwide Accident Repair Services have a network of accident and repair centres across the UK, we know both the RAC and AA have reported in the past two weeks that they have seen some of their busiest call times ever.
"National Accident Repair Services has net cash on the balance sheet and trades on a relatively lowly eight times earnings per share, with 5.4pc dividend yield.
"Alternatively, there is Domino's Pizza. During last year's heavy snow fall we saw its like-for-like sales jump. As a nation, it seems when the weather is bad we would prefer to stay inside and order the food in. Domino's trades on 21 times earnings, with a 2pc dividend yield.
"Finally, another winner from bad weather could be Providence Resources. Unfortunately in the UK and in Ireland we have hugely underinvested in our gas-storage capabilities. We are actually in breach of European Union directives that state we should be storing three months' of supply. On average we store just 14 days' usage in the UK compared with over 80 days' in France and Germany.
"For many years, Britain seemed to have an endless supply from the North Sea, but this has now come to an end. The prospects of a higher and more volatile gas price should lead the Government to readdress this balance. One of the companies best positioned for this is Providence Resources which owns the depleted gas fields off southern Ireland, at Kinsale Head, that could be linked to both Ireland and the UK."
Charlotte Black, of Brewin Dolphin's investment banking division, also favoured candidates outside the FTSE 100 blue chips. She said: "Telecom Plus is a supplier of utilities that is well placed to benefit from increased energy consumption that will come through during this cold period.
"Around 70pc of energy consumption typically occurs in the second half of Telecom Plus's financial year which, coupled with strong increases in customer numbers and high energy demand, should provide a favourable backdrop for the run up to the March year end.
"Alternatively, the performance of BBA Aviation's de-icing operations at US airports has the potential to mean the difference between hitting forecasts or falling short. With the US east coast also experiencing extremely low prevailing temperatures pre and post-New Year, this should have boosted December year-end results and provided positive momentum into 2010.
John Haynes, head of research at Rensburg Sheppards, said basing selection on the current weather patterns is not where he would start when considering shares to invest in. But, among less obvious candidates, it may be worth considering general insurance companies such as Aviva and RSA.
"Both have UK and European exposure. Although claim expenses are likely to rise, since both road accidents will increase as will home insurance claims as burst pipes cause damage as the thaw sets in, the consequences should be that premium rates firm as the uninsured realise the error of their ways."
Other options to diminish risk by diversification are to buy exchange traded funds (ETFs) or exchange traded commodities (ETCs) from a stockbroker or wealth manager.
These are the ways to play the weather favoured by Justin Urquhart Stewart, of Seven Investment Management. He said: "Economic dislocation from the freeze will ripple across the economy, but the utilities has to be a great place to start – not just in the UK but across the continent; follow the snow line.
"The iShares DJ STOXX 600 Utilities (SX6PEX GY) is the most obvious one, giving exposure to a broad array of European utilities, including power generation. You might also consider iShares DJ STOXX 600 Oil and Gas (SXEPEX GY). Both are listed in Germany, but db x-trackers has similar London-listed, swap-based ETFs.
"If you think there will be fuel shortages you could try ETFS Heating Oil (HEAT LN) or ETFS Leveraged Heating Oil (LHEO LN) and also ETFS Short Heating Oil (SHEA LN) if you are bearish.
"I am told that if the temperature in Eastern and Central Europe persists at a very low level some of the winter wheat crop will be damaged – an adventurous investor could sell short the ETFS Wheat (WEAT LN)."
However, a substantial disadvantage of ETFs in the high-yielding utilities sector is that while dividends are added to the value of the fund, they are not distributed as income. While commodities themselves pay no income, storage costs contribute to the total expense ratio of ETCs; although these costs are usually only about 0.5pc per annum.
Published: 7:18AM GMT 14 Jan 2010
Extreme weather has inconvenienced millions of people in recent weeks, but some investors argue it's an ill wind that blows no good.
They predict there will be winners as well as losers when the financial effects of this winter are weighed up.
City cynics claim the smart money has been piling into companies that will benefit from a cold snap ever since last month's international conference on global warming.
But others say there is further to go. For example, gas and electricity providers' share prices were largely left behind by last year's stock market rally.
These firms are paying much higher dividends than more fashionable sectors which could prove more vulnerable to setbacks in 2010. Whatever happens to the economy and discretionary consumer spending, people are likely to want to continue heating their homes and cooking their food.
While it would be wrong to overstate the long-term impact on profits of a few weeks' freezing conditions, Your Money asked a selection of financial advisers to pick stocks that might benefit from a re-rating prompted by bad weather.
Keith Bowman of Hargreaves Lansdown wealth managers said: "National Grid is situated at the heart of Britain's electricity and gas network and is one of the biggest energy companies in the world.
"The company also owns and operates the high-pressure gas transmission system in Britain, with this distribution business delivering gas to 11 million homes and businesses.
"It also distributes electricity to nearly five million customers in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York and Rhode Island. In addition to its transmission and distribution business, the company also operates a number of related businesses including liquefied natural gas (LNG) importation and storage, metering, interconnectors and land remediation."
National Grid was trading around 647p this week, compared to a 52-week high of 682p, and yielding 5.6pc net of basic rate tax with the dividend covered 1.4 times by earnings.
Mr Bowman also favours BP. He said: "British Petroleum is a major global oil and energy provider. The group is currently the UK's second biggest company by market capitalisation – HSBC is number one – with a stock market value of over £115 bn. BP employs over 90,000 people globally, conducting exploration and production operations in over 25 countries worldwide.
"The group's third-quarter results last October saw the company comfortably exceeding analysts' forecasts. While the global economic downturn continued to impact, an improved operational performance combined with additional cost savings helped to cushion the fall.
"Furthermore, a perceived recovery in the global economy, aided by the current cold snap impacting on much of the northern hemisphere, has recently seen energy prices rising, a fact that should assist the group going forward."
BP was trading near its annual high of about 633p this week, yielding 5.4pc net, with dividends covered two times by earnings.
Peter Day, a partner at stockbrokers Killik & Co, said: "While the recent cold snap is bad news for companies such as retailers where they may see reduced footfall, this is not necessarily the case for all. Specifically, we would highlight the utility companies, which have lagged the market rebound over the course of the last nine months.
"As uncertainties resurface in the economy, investors should look towards the certainty of the utility sector where investors can benefit from a defensive earnings stream and attractive dividend yields. We believe that interest rates are going to remain lower for longer than many forecasters predict and this high level of dividend income may become increasingly attractive.
"Centrica secures and supplies gas and electricity to residential and business customers throughout the UK. These activities account for 90pc of group profits, but it also has operations in North America and Continental Europe.
"In the UK, the company, operating as British Gas, is the biggest retail energy supplier, with a 44pc share in gas and 22pc share in electricity. There are some concerns surrounding the health of the competition in the UK retail business, potentially leaving Centrica well placed to take market share and improve profit margins over time.
"The group has also made strong progress with its other strategic priorities – improved customer service and cost cutting.
"Despite the increased level of acquisition activity, the balance sheet remains robust, with net debt of £2.5bn. As a result, the group has firepower for further acquisitions and the flexibility to pay an attractive yield. We believe the current level provides an excellent long-term opportunity to buy a well-managed company with a strong brand, high market share and scope to add shareholder value."
Centrica was trading around 279p this week, yielding 4.4pc, with dividends covered 1.4 times by earnings.
Even as fears recede that swine flu would cause massive casualties, winter and its associated illnesses may prompt a reassessment of the defensive attractions of pharmaceutical stocks.
Mr Day said: "GlaxoSmithKline is a global pharmaceutical and consumer health-care company with a broad-based drug portfolio in central nervous system, respiratory, vaccines, oncology and anti-viral markets.
''The group is less exposed to patent expiries than most of the peer group, with only 25pc of its sales vulnerable to generic competition between now and 2012. Its cost-reduction programme has already delivered £1 bn of cumulative annualised savings and the group is still targeting £1.7 bn of savings by 2011.
''The company is financially strong and management has postponed the share buyback programme to focus on acquisition opportunities provided by the market downturn.
"However, the group has dismissed the prospect of a large-scale merger and will instead focus on smaller deals, with the emphasis likely to be placed on vaccines, over-the-counter medicines, consumer health care and expansion in emerging markets."
GlaxoSmithKline was trading around 1290p this week, yielding 4.7pc, with the dividend covered 1.9 times by earnings.
George Godber from Matterley Asset Management – part of Charles Stanley – picked some smaller companies. He said: "Nationwide Accident Repair Services have a network of accident and repair centres across the UK, we know both the RAC and AA have reported in the past two weeks that they have seen some of their busiest call times ever.
"National Accident Repair Services has net cash on the balance sheet and trades on a relatively lowly eight times earnings per share, with 5.4pc dividend yield.
"Alternatively, there is Domino's Pizza. During last year's heavy snow fall we saw its like-for-like sales jump. As a nation, it seems when the weather is bad we would prefer to stay inside and order the food in. Domino's trades on 21 times earnings, with a 2pc dividend yield.
"Finally, another winner from bad weather could be Providence Resources. Unfortunately in the UK and in Ireland we have hugely underinvested in our gas-storage capabilities. We are actually in breach of European Union directives that state we should be storing three months' of supply. On average we store just 14 days' usage in the UK compared with over 80 days' in France and Germany.
"For many years, Britain seemed to have an endless supply from the North Sea, but this has now come to an end. The prospects of a higher and more volatile gas price should lead the Government to readdress this balance. One of the companies best positioned for this is Providence Resources which owns the depleted gas fields off southern Ireland, at Kinsale Head, that could be linked to both Ireland and the UK."
Charlotte Black, of Brewin Dolphin's investment banking division, also favoured candidates outside the FTSE 100 blue chips. She said: "Telecom Plus is a supplier of utilities that is well placed to benefit from increased energy consumption that will come through during this cold period.
"Around 70pc of energy consumption typically occurs in the second half of Telecom Plus's financial year which, coupled with strong increases in customer numbers and high energy demand, should provide a favourable backdrop for the run up to the March year end.
"Alternatively, the performance of BBA Aviation's de-icing operations at US airports has the potential to mean the difference between hitting forecasts or falling short. With the US east coast also experiencing extremely low prevailing temperatures pre and post-New Year, this should have boosted December year-end results and provided positive momentum into 2010.
John Haynes, head of research at Rensburg Sheppards, said basing selection on the current weather patterns is not where he would start when considering shares to invest in. But, among less obvious candidates, it may be worth considering general insurance companies such as Aviva and RSA.
"Both have UK and European exposure. Although claim expenses are likely to rise, since both road accidents will increase as will home insurance claims as burst pipes cause damage as the thaw sets in, the consequences should be that premium rates firm as the uninsured realise the error of their ways."
Other options to diminish risk by diversification are to buy exchange traded funds (ETFs) or exchange traded commodities (ETCs) from a stockbroker or wealth manager.
These are the ways to play the weather favoured by Justin Urquhart Stewart, of Seven Investment Management. He said: "Economic dislocation from the freeze will ripple across the economy, but the utilities has to be a great place to start – not just in the UK but across the continent; follow the snow line.
"The iShares DJ STOXX 600 Utilities (SX6PEX GY) is the most obvious one, giving exposure to a broad array of European utilities, including power generation. You might also consider iShares DJ STOXX 600 Oil and Gas (SXEPEX GY). Both are listed in Germany, but db x-trackers has similar London-listed, swap-based ETFs.
"If you think there will be fuel shortages you could try ETFS Heating Oil (HEAT LN) or ETFS Leveraged Heating Oil (LHEO LN) and also ETFS Short Heating Oil (SHEA LN) if you are bearish.
"I am told that if the temperature in Eastern and Central Europe persists at a very low level some of the winter wheat crop will be damaged – an adventurous investor could sell short the ETFS Wheat (WEAT LN)."
However, a substantial disadvantage of ETFs in the high-yielding utilities sector is that while dividends are added to the value of the fund, they are not distributed as income. While commodities themselves pay no income, storage costs contribute to the total expense ratio of ETCs; although these costs are usually only about 0.5pc per annum.
Qatar to use biofuels? What about the country's energy consumption?
Qatar announce the future use of biofuels on its airline, but its domestic carbon emissions are shockingly free and easy
Fred Pearce
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 14 January 2010 07.00 GMT
Qatar made the news twice this week. First, the Manchester United squad flew out to the Gulf state for a few days to get in some training without the hassle of snow – hoping to revive their fortunes after a draw with Birmingham City . Second, it announced a "major environmental initiative" aimed at curbing the carbon emissions of its national airline through the use of biofuel.
They won't actually be cutting emissions any time soon, of course. Those are soaring, because, bucking the global recession, the airline expects to carry 11% more passengers in the current year.
But the airline is doing an analysis to see if it might one day start burning biofuels. Perhaps the biofuels will be grown on the huge chunk of farmland the state controversially wants to buy in Kenya.
Qataris have the highest carbon footprint on the planet. The country's per-capita emissions from burning fossil fuels are way ahead of any other nation, and almost three times those of everybody's poster bad boy, the US. This is all the more extraordinary since Qatar's electricity is mostly generated from burning natural gas, which has half the emissions of coal.
Those emissions have also risen almost fourfold since 1990. But, thanks to the vagaries of the Kyoto Protocol, the country is not penalised for this. Qatar is by some measures the second richest country in the world, but for the purposes of climate law, it is classified as a developing nation. And so it has no emissions targets.
How come Qatar's emissions are so high? The main reason is its soaring use of energy. By the end of next year Qatar will have six times the electricity-generating capacity it had as recently as 1995. One outlet for all this power is industry, based round its huge natural gas reserves. Just this week, the national gas company announced a deal with ExxonMobil for a new $6bn (£3.69bn) petrochemicals plant.
A lot of Qatar's gas is exported as liquefied natural gas – the country is the world's largest producer of the stuff. It's a fairly clean fuel at our end, but takes a lot of energy to liquefy in Qatar. So to that extent Qatar is taking a hit to allow Europe and North America to cut their emissions – handy for helping us meet the Kyoto Protocol, but not much good for the planet.
The Qatari government recently used this argument to downplay its emissions. In its recent Human Development Report, it called them "relatively modest".
But that is not the real story. Those Qatari emissions are so extraordinarily high for another reason. Qataris just don't seem to care.
Sure, there is the biofuels initiative from the state airline. Sure, a year ago Qatar held a conference to discuss how to cut its emissions without damaging the economy.
But if its rulers were serious about cutting emissions they might charge for their energy supplies. Yes, you read that right. Qatari households get their electricity free. So why would they cut down on how much they burn?
Oh, and they get their water free as well. And in Qatar, even more than most places in the Middle East, water is liquid electricity. Almost every drop coming out of the taps is produced from desalinating seawater. This is extremely expensive in energy – and therefore expensive in carbon emissions.
But because the water is free, Qataris waste it like, well, water. Despite being a desert state with virtually no rainfall, the country has among the highest per-capita water uses in the world. Use averages around 400 litres per head per day. According to Hassan Al-Mohannadi, a geographer at the University of Qatar, people in "big, often palatial houses" consume up to 35,000 litres per day.
Even here, they have a way of blaming foreigners. According to Hassan Al-Mohannadi, one reason water use is so high is that "the large number of foreign domestic servants, who come from water-rich countries, are not educated in water conservation".
Water consumption continues to rise, so Qatar is building more desalination plants. If Qatar was serious about cutting its carbon footprint it would do something about water demand. At the least, it might charge for the stuff.
Will Qatar's emissions carry on up? Looks Likely. Electricity demand is currently rising by about 7% a year. That is not as fast as the national economy, which is growing by 11% annually – the fastest boom on the planet.
But stopping this out-of-control carbon-emitting juggernaut will take more than an Airbus full of biofuels.
Fred Pearce
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 14 January 2010 07.00 GMT
Qatar made the news twice this week. First, the Manchester United squad flew out to the Gulf state for a few days to get in some training without the hassle of snow – hoping to revive their fortunes after a draw with Birmingham City . Second, it announced a "major environmental initiative" aimed at curbing the carbon emissions of its national airline through the use of biofuel.
They won't actually be cutting emissions any time soon, of course. Those are soaring, because, bucking the global recession, the airline expects to carry 11% more passengers in the current year.
But the airline is doing an analysis to see if it might one day start burning biofuels. Perhaps the biofuels will be grown on the huge chunk of farmland the state controversially wants to buy in Kenya.
Qataris have the highest carbon footprint on the planet. The country's per-capita emissions from burning fossil fuels are way ahead of any other nation, and almost three times those of everybody's poster bad boy, the US. This is all the more extraordinary since Qatar's electricity is mostly generated from burning natural gas, which has half the emissions of coal.
Those emissions have also risen almost fourfold since 1990. But, thanks to the vagaries of the Kyoto Protocol, the country is not penalised for this. Qatar is by some measures the second richest country in the world, but for the purposes of climate law, it is classified as a developing nation. And so it has no emissions targets.
How come Qatar's emissions are so high? The main reason is its soaring use of energy. By the end of next year Qatar will have six times the electricity-generating capacity it had as recently as 1995. One outlet for all this power is industry, based round its huge natural gas reserves. Just this week, the national gas company announced a deal with ExxonMobil for a new $6bn (£3.69bn) petrochemicals plant.
A lot of Qatar's gas is exported as liquefied natural gas – the country is the world's largest producer of the stuff. It's a fairly clean fuel at our end, but takes a lot of energy to liquefy in Qatar. So to that extent Qatar is taking a hit to allow Europe and North America to cut their emissions – handy for helping us meet the Kyoto Protocol, but not much good for the planet.
The Qatari government recently used this argument to downplay its emissions. In its recent Human Development Report, it called them "relatively modest".
But that is not the real story. Those Qatari emissions are so extraordinarily high for another reason. Qataris just don't seem to care.
Sure, there is the biofuels initiative from the state airline. Sure, a year ago Qatar held a conference to discuss how to cut its emissions without damaging the economy.
But if its rulers were serious about cutting emissions they might charge for their energy supplies. Yes, you read that right. Qatari households get their electricity free. So why would they cut down on how much they burn?
Oh, and they get their water free as well. And in Qatar, even more than most places in the Middle East, water is liquid electricity. Almost every drop coming out of the taps is produced from desalinating seawater. This is extremely expensive in energy – and therefore expensive in carbon emissions.
But because the water is free, Qataris waste it like, well, water. Despite being a desert state with virtually no rainfall, the country has among the highest per-capita water uses in the world. Use averages around 400 litres per head per day. According to Hassan Al-Mohannadi, a geographer at the University of Qatar, people in "big, often palatial houses" consume up to 35,000 litres per day.
Even here, they have a way of blaming foreigners. According to Hassan Al-Mohannadi, one reason water use is so high is that "the large number of foreign domestic servants, who come from water-rich countries, are not educated in water conservation".
Water consumption continues to rise, so Qatar is building more desalination plants. If Qatar was serious about cutting its carbon footprint it would do something about water demand. At the least, it might charge for the stuff.
Will Qatar's emissions carry on up? Looks Likely. Electricity demand is currently rising by about 7% a year. That is not as fast as the national economy, which is growing by 11% annually – the fastest boom on the planet.
But stopping this out-of-control carbon-emitting juggernaut will take more than an Airbus full of biofuels.
Thursday, 14 January 2010
UN should be sidelined in future climate talks, says Obama official
Suzanne Goldenberg Washington John Vidal
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 14 January 2010
America sees a diminished role for the United Nations in trying to stop global warming after the "chaotic" Copenhagen climate change summit, an Obama administration official said today.
Jonathan Pershing, who helped lead talks at Copenhagen, instead sketched out a future path for negotiations dominated by the world's largest polluters such as China, the US, India, Brazil and South Africa, who signed up to a deal in the final hours of the summit. That would represent a realignment of the way the international community has dealt with climate change over the last two decades.
"It is impossible to imagine a global agreement in place that doesn't essentially have a global buy-in. There aren't other institutions beside the UN that have that," Pershing said. "But it is also impossible to imagine a negotiation of enormous complexity where you have a table of 192 countries involved in all the detail."
Pershing said the flaws in the UN process, which demands consensus among the international community, were exposed at Copenhagen. "The meeting itself was at best chaotic," he said, in a talk at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "We met mostly overnight. It seemed like we didn't sleep for two weeks. It seemed a funny way to do things, and it showed."
The lack of confidence in the UN extends to the $30bn (£18.5bn) global fund, which will be mobilised over the next three years to help poor countries adapt to climate change.
"The UN didn't manage the conference that well," Pershing said. "I am not sure that any of us are particularly confident that the UN managing the near-term financing is the right way to go."
Pershing did not exclude the UN from future negotiations. But he repeatedly credited the group of leading economies headed by America for moving forward on the talks, including on finance and developing green technology. He suggested the larger forum offered by the UN was instead important for countries such as Cuba or the small islands which risk annihilation by climate change to air their grievances.
"We are going to have a very very difficult time moving forward and it will be a combination of small and larger processes," he said.
The first test of the accord agreed by America, China, India, South Africa and Brazil arrives on 31 January, the deadline for countries to commit officially to actions to halt global warming. Here, too, Pershing indicated the focus would be narrower in scope than the UN's all-inclusive approach. "We expect there will be significant actions recorded by major countries," he said. "We are not really worried what Chad does. We are not really worried about what Haiti says it is going to do about greenhouse gas emissions. We just hope they recover from the earthquake."
Key groups of developing countries are to meet this month to try to explore ways to get to agree a binding agreement.
As the dust settles on the stormy Danish meeting, environment ministers from the so-called Basic countries – Brazil, South Africa, India and China – will meet on 24 January in New Delhi. No formal agenda has been set, but observers expect the emerging geopolitical alliance between the four large developing countries who brokered the final "deal" with the US in Denmark will define a common position on emission reductions and climate aid money, and seek ways to convince other countries to sign up to the Copenhagen accord that emerged last month.
Fewer than 30 countries out of the 192 who are signed up to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which organised Copenhagen, have indicated that they will sign. Many are known to be deeply unhappy with the $100bn pledged for climate aid and the decision not to make deeper cuts in emissions.
Under UN laws, consensus is required. There is confusion over the legal standing of the agreement reached in Copenhagen and many countries may not be in a position to sign up by 31 January because they have yet to consult their parliaments.
Meanwhile, Bolivia, one of a handful of poor countries which openly opposed the deal in Copenhagen, has invited countries and non-governmental groups which want a much stronger climate deal to the World Conference of the People on Climate Change.
Pershing said that he had told some of those leaders that there was no prospect of reaching a stronger deal that would limit warming to 1.5 degrees.
The conference, to be held in Cochabamba in Bolivia from 20-22 April, is expected to attract heads of state from the loose alliance of socialist "Alba" countries, including Venezuela and Cuba. Alba, the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America countries, was set up to provide an alternative to the US-led free trade area of the Americas.
Bolivia this week urged leaders of the world's indigenous ethnic groups and scientists to come. "The invitation is to heads of state but chiefly to civil society. We think that social movements and non government groups, people not at decision level, have an important role in climate talks," said Maria Souviron, the Bolivian ambassador in London.
The meeting, which is intended to cement ties between the seven Alba countries, is also expected to pursue the idea of an international court for environmental crimes, as well as the radical idea of "mother earth rights". This would give all entities, from man to endangered animal species, an equal right to life.
"Our objective is to save humanity and not just half of humanity," said Morales in a speech at Copenhagen. "We are here to save mother earth. Our objective is to reduce climate change to [under] 1C. [Above this] many islands will disappear and Africa will suffer a holocaust. The real cause of climate change is the capitalist system. If we want to save the earth then we must end that economic model."
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 14 January 2010
America sees a diminished role for the United Nations in trying to stop global warming after the "chaotic" Copenhagen climate change summit, an Obama administration official said today.
Jonathan Pershing, who helped lead talks at Copenhagen, instead sketched out a future path for negotiations dominated by the world's largest polluters such as China, the US, India, Brazil and South Africa, who signed up to a deal in the final hours of the summit. That would represent a realignment of the way the international community has dealt with climate change over the last two decades.
"It is impossible to imagine a global agreement in place that doesn't essentially have a global buy-in. There aren't other institutions beside the UN that have that," Pershing said. "But it is also impossible to imagine a negotiation of enormous complexity where you have a table of 192 countries involved in all the detail."
Pershing said the flaws in the UN process, which demands consensus among the international community, were exposed at Copenhagen. "The meeting itself was at best chaotic," he said, in a talk at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "We met mostly overnight. It seemed like we didn't sleep for two weeks. It seemed a funny way to do things, and it showed."
The lack of confidence in the UN extends to the $30bn (£18.5bn) global fund, which will be mobilised over the next three years to help poor countries adapt to climate change.
"The UN didn't manage the conference that well," Pershing said. "I am not sure that any of us are particularly confident that the UN managing the near-term financing is the right way to go."
Pershing did not exclude the UN from future negotiations. But he repeatedly credited the group of leading economies headed by America for moving forward on the talks, including on finance and developing green technology. He suggested the larger forum offered by the UN was instead important for countries such as Cuba or the small islands which risk annihilation by climate change to air their grievances.
"We are going to have a very very difficult time moving forward and it will be a combination of small and larger processes," he said.
The first test of the accord agreed by America, China, India, South Africa and Brazil arrives on 31 January, the deadline for countries to commit officially to actions to halt global warming. Here, too, Pershing indicated the focus would be narrower in scope than the UN's all-inclusive approach. "We expect there will be significant actions recorded by major countries," he said. "We are not really worried what Chad does. We are not really worried about what Haiti says it is going to do about greenhouse gas emissions. We just hope they recover from the earthquake."
Key groups of developing countries are to meet this month to try to explore ways to get to agree a binding agreement.
As the dust settles on the stormy Danish meeting, environment ministers from the so-called Basic countries – Brazil, South Africa, India and China – will meet on 24 January in New Delhi. No formal agenda has been set, but observers expect the emerging geopolitical alliance between the four large developing countries who brokered the final "deal" with the US in Denmark will define a common position on emission reductions and climate aid money, and seek ways to convince other countries to sign up to the Copenhagen accord that emerged last month.
Fewer than 30 countries out of the 192 who are signed up to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which organised Copenhagen, have indicated that they will sign. Many are known to be deeply unhappy with the $100bn pledged for climate aid and the decision not to make deeper cuts in emissions.
Under UN laws, consensus is required. There is confusion over the legal standing of the agreement reached in Copenhagen and many countries may not be in a position to sign up by 31 January because they have yet to consult their parliaments.
Meanwhile, Bolivia, one of a handful of poor countries which openly opposed the deal in Copenhagen, has invited countries and non-governmental groups which want a much stronger climate deal to the World Conference of the People on Climate Change.
Pershing said that he had told some of those leaders that there was no prospect of reaching a stronger deal that would limit warming to 1.5 degrees.
The conference, to be held in Cochabamba in Bolivia from 20-22 April, is expected to attract heads of state from the loose alliance of socialist "Alba" countries, including Venezuela and Cuba. Alba, the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America countries, was set up to provide an alternative to the US-led free trade area of the Americas.
Bolivia this week urged leaders of the world's indigenous ethnic groups and scientists to come. "The invitation is to heads of state but chiefly to civil society. We think that social movements and non government groups, people not at decision level, have an important role in climate talks," said Maria Souviron, the Bolivian ambassador in London.
The meeting, which is intended to cement ties between the seven Alba countries, is also expected to pursue the idea of an international court for environmental crimes, as well as the radical idea of "mother earth rights". This would give all entities, from man to endangered animal species, an equal right to life.
"Our objective is to save humanity and not just half of humanity," said Morales in a speech at Copenhagen. "We are here to save mother earth. Our objective is to reduce climate change to [under] 1C. [Above this] many islands will disappear and Africa will suffer a holocaust. The real cause of climate change is the capitalist system. If we want to save the earth then we must end that economic model."
US officials helped prepare Obama for Copenhagen summit's collapse
Suzanne Goldenberg, US environment correspondent
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 13 January 2010 21.41 GMT
US state department officials were so convinced that the Copenhagen climate change summit was heading for collapse that they crafted a "talks fail" speech for Barack Obama.
Jonathan Pershing, who helped lead talks at Copenhagen, instead sketched out a future path for negotiations dominated by the world's largest polluters such as China, the US, India, Brazil and South Africa, who signed up to a deal in the final hours of the summit. That would represent a realignment of the way the international community has dealt with climate change over the last two decades.
"It is impossible to imagine a global agreement in place that doesn't essentially have a global buy-in. There aren't other institutions beside the UN that have that," Pershing said. "But it is also impossible to imagine a negotiation of enormous complexity where you have a table of 192 countries involved in all the detail."
Pershing said the flaws in the UN process, which demands consensus among the international community, were exposed at Copenhagen. "The meeting itself was at best chaotic," he said, in a talk at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "We met mostly overnight. It seemed like we didn't sleep for two weeks. It seemed a funny way to do things, and it showed."
The lack of confidence in the UN extends to the $30bn (£18.5bn) global fund, which will be mobilised over the next three years to help poor countries adapt to climate change. "I am not sure that any of us are particularly confident that the UN managing the near-term financing is the right way to go," he said.
Pershing did not exclude the UN from future negotiations. But he repeatedly credited the group of leading economies headed by America for moving forward on the talks. He suggested the larger forum offered by the UN was instead important for countries such as Cuba or the small islands which risk annihilation by climate change to air their grievances.
"We are going to have a very very difficult time moving forward and it will be a combination of small and larger process[es]," he said.
The first test of the accord agreed by the US, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil arrives on 31 January, the deadline for countries to commit officially to actions to halt global warming.
Here too Pershing indicated that the focus would be far narrower in scope that the UN's all-inclusive approach. "We expect that there will be significant actions recorded by major countries," he said. "We are not really worried what Chad does. We are not really worried about what Haiti says it is going to do about greenhouse gas emissions. We just hope they recover from the earthquake."
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 13 January 2010 21.41 GMT
US state department officials were so convinced that the Copenhagen climate change summit was heading for collapse that they crafted a "talks fail" speech for Barack Obama.
Jonathan Pershing, who helped lead talks at Copenhagen, instead sketched out a future path for negotiations dominated by the world's largest polluters such as China, the US, India, Brazil and South Africa, who signed up to a deal in the final hours of the summit. That would represent a realignment of the way the international community has dealt with climate change over the last two decades.
"It is impossible to imagine a global agreement in place that doesn't essentially have a global buy-in. There aren't other institutions beside the UN that have that," Pershing said. "But it is also impossible to imagine a negotiation of enormous complexity where you have a table of 192 countries involved in all the detail."
Pershing said the flaws in the UN process, which demands consensus among the international community, were exposed at Copenhagen. "The meeting itself was at best chaotic," he said, in a talk at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "We met mostly overnight. It seemed like we didn't sleep for two weeks. It seemed a funny way to do things, and it showed."
The lack of confidence in the UN extends to the $30bn (£18.5bn) global fund, which will be mobilised over the next three years to help poor countries adapt to climate change. "I am not sure that any of us are particularly confident that the UN managing the near-term financing is the right way to go," he said.
Pershing did not exclude the UN from future negotiations. But he repeatedly credited the group of leading economies headed by America for moving forward on the talks. He suggested the larger forum offered by the UN was instead important for countries such as Cuba or the small islands which risk annihilation by climate change to air their grievances.
"We are going to have a very very difficult time moving forward and it will be a combination of small and larger process[es]," he said.
The first test of the accord agreed by the US, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil arrives on 31 January, the deadline for countries to commit officially to actions to halt global warming.
Here too Pershing indicated that the focus would be far narrower in scope that the UN's all-inclusive approach. "We expect that there will be significant actions recorded by major countries," he said. "We are not really worried what Chad does. We are not really worried about what Haiti says it is going to do about greenhouse gas emissions. We just hope they recover from the earthquake."
China, India, Brazil and South Africa prepare for post-Copenhagen meeting
Influential bloc of large developing countries expected to define common position on emissions cuts and climate aid
John Vidal, environment editor
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 13 January 2010 16.53 GMT
One month after the Copenhagen climate summit ended in recriminations and and a weak outline of a global deal, key groups of developing countries will meet to try to explore ways to get to agree a legally binding final agreement.
As the dust settles on the stormy Danish meeting, environment ministers from the so-called Basic countries – Brazil, South Africa, India and China – will meet on January 24 in New Delhi. No formal agenda has been set, but observers expect the emerging geopolitical alliance between the four large developing countries who brokered the final "deal" with the US in Denmark will define a common position on emission reductions and climate aid money, and seek ways to convince other countries to sign up to the Copenhagen accord that emerged last month.
Fewer than 30 countries out of the 192 who are signed up to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which organised Copenhagen, have indicated that they will sign. Many are known to be deeply unhappy with the $100bn pledged for climate aid and the decision not to make deeper cuts in emissions. Under UN laws, consensus is required for a binding agreement to be made.
Countries have until January 31 to sign up to the accord and provide the UN with information on the specific commitments and actions they plan to take to reduce emissions. But there is growing confusion over the legal standing of the agreement reached in Copenhagen and many countries may not be in a position to sign because they have yet to consult their parliaments.
Meanwhile, Bolivia, one of a handful of poor countries which openly opposed the deal in Copenhagen, has invited countries and non-governmental groups which want a much stronger climate deal to the World Conference of the People on Climate Change.
The conference, to be held in Cochabamba in Bolivia from April 20-22, is expected to attract heads of state from the loose alliance of socialist "Alba" countries, including Venezuela and Cuba. ALBA, the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America countries, was set up to provide an alternative to the US-led free trade area of the Americas.
Bolivia this week urged leaders of the world's indigenous ethnic groups and scientists to come. "The invitation is to heads of state but chiefly to civil society. We think that social movements and non government groups, people not at decision level, have an important role in climate talks," said Maria Souviron, Bolivian ambassador in London.
The meeting, which is intended to cement ties between the seven Alba countries, is also expected to persue the idea of an international court for environmental crimes, as well as the radical idea of "mother earth rights". This would give all entities, from man to endangered animal species, an equal right to life.
"Our objective is to save humanity and not just half of humanity," said Morales in a speech at Copenhagen. "We are here to save mother earth. Our objective is to reduce climate change to [under] 1C. [Above this] many islands will disappear and Africa will suffer a holocaust … the real cause of climate change is the capitalist system. If we want to save the earth then we must end that economic model."
John Vidal, environment editor
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 13 January 2010 16.53 GMT
One month after the Copenhagen climate summit ended in recriminations and and a weak outline of a global deal, key groups of developing countries will meet to try to explore ways to get to agree a legally binding final agreement.
As the dust settles on the stormy Danish meeting, environment ministers from the so-called Basic countries – Brazil, South Africa, India and China – will meet on January 24 in New Delhi. No formal agenda has been set, but observers expect the emerging geopolitical alliance between the four large developing countries who brokered the final "deal" with the US in Denmark will define a common position on emission reductions and climate aid money, and seek ways to convince other countries to sign up to the Copenhagen accord that emerged last month.
Fewer than 30 countries out of the 192 who are signed up to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which organised Copenhagen, have indicated that they will sign. Many are known to be deeply unhappy with the $100bn pledged for climate aid and the decision not to make deeper cuts in emissions. Under UN laws, consensus is required for a binding agreement to be made.
Countries have until January 31 to sign up to the accord and provide the UN with information on the specific commitments and actions they plan to take to reduce emissions. But there is growing confusion over the legal standing of the agreement reached in Copenhagen and many countries may not be in a position to sign because they have yet to consult their parliaments.
Meanwhile, Bolivia, one of a handful of poor countries which openly opposed the deal in Copenhagen, has invited countries and non-governmental groups which want a much stronger climate deal to the World Conference of the People on Climate Change.
The conference, to be held in Cochabamba in Bolivia from April 20-22, is expected to attract heads of state from the loose alliance of socialist "Alba" countries, including Venezuela and Cuba. ALBA, the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America countries, was set up to provide an alternative to the US-led free trade area of the Americas.
Bolivia this week urged leaders of the world's indigenous ethnic groups and scientists to come. "The invitation is to heads of state but chiefly to civil society. We think that social movements and non government groups, people not at decision level, have an important role in climate talks," said Maria Souviron, Bolivian ambassador in London.
The meeting, which is intended to cement ties between the seven Alba countries, is also expected to persue the idea of an international court for environmental crimes, as well as the radical idea of "mother earth rights". This would give all entities, from man to endangered animal species, an equal right to life.
"Our objective is to save humanity and not just half of humanity," said Morales in a speech at Copenhagen. "We are here to save mother earth. Our objective is to reduce climate change to [under] 1C. [Above this] many islands will disappear and Africa will suffer a holocaust … the real cause of climate change is the capitalist system. If we want to save the earth then we must end that economic model."
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