Agriculture must warm to Co2 responsibilities

Published Date: 30 June 2008
By Dan Buglass
THERE has not been much sign of global warming lately, but sceptical old me has at last, albeit reluctantly, come to accept that it is a fact of life and one that the farming world will have to come to terms with. My conversion came last Wednesday at a conference in Edinburgh staged by the International Dairy Federation.
I prefer the term climate change to global warming as that is what appears to be happening increasingly around the world. Serious flooding recently in several US states in the Mid West and a prolonged drought in Australia will have a major impact on world food supplies – and commodity prices. My guess is that we are entering a period of considerable volatility and that the politicians have, for the most part, not yet woken up to that probability. I am not suggesting that food prices will rocket in the same fashion as oil has done over the past year. However, the upsurge in the price beef producers are receiving for their cattle at point of slaughter is an example of what can occur.In Great Britain, prices for finished cattle have increased by around 60p per kilo since the turn of the year and are now hovering close to 280p per kilo. During the whole of 2007, the average GB price struggled to exceed 220p per kilo. The costs of production have also increased admittedly, but there does appear to be a renewed sense of optimism in the beef sector. Another example of that brighter outlook is that the value of beef breeding cattle has risen by a shade over 50 per cent since early January and a cow with a young calf at foot is now worth, on average, £1,100.However, what really hit home to me at that conference was the facts and figures spelt out by John Gilliland, a former president of the Ulster Farmers' Union. The world, he said, is having to feed an extra 70 million people a year and there are at least one billion in "food poverty". Meanwhile, over the past 100 years the average global temperature has increased by 0.75 degree centigrade and 50 per cent of that has occurred in the past half-century. I trotted out those statistics in the pub one night recently, but no-one would believe me. The fact it was raining and the daytime temperature has been more akin to winter than summer did not help, but I think we all must accept the evidence of the scientific community.Gilliland came up with a wide range of supporting evidence, not the least of which is the fact that we are experiencing real food inflation for the first time in over 30 years.My own observation is that shoppers are being much more careful in their choices and are, for the first time, talking about the price of food. Another pointer to food inflation is the fact that normally busy restaurants are much quieter: some have closed and booking a table is no longer an absolute necessity.World stocks of grain are at their lowest level for 50 years and at one stage in 2007 global supplies were down to just 30 days. During the past 50 years, the world's population has doubled and the stark reality is that never before have stocks of grain been at such a low level per head of population. At the same time, we are witnessing a massive economic expansion in the Far East, with China leading the way. That is reflected in what people are choosing to eat, with a switch from starch to protein. Consumption of dairy products in China has increased by 150 per cent in recent years, while the demand for meat is also expanding rapidly and that requires increasing quantities of cereals.Oil reserves are diminishing at a worrying rate and the days when oil was below $50 per barrel are unlikely ever to return. The great Henry Ford foresaw this as far back as 1925. He said: "The fuel of the future is coming from fruit, weeds, sawdust and almost anything." Ford further pointed out there was enough alcohol in one acre of potatoes to cultivate that area for 100 years. At present, 60 per cent of all the cereals produced in the world is utilised for human consumption, with 36 per cent devoted to feeding animals. Barely 4 per cent is used for biofuels, but this is growing by 20 per cent annually and probably far more in the US. Clearly, there will be an increasing conflict between using grain for feeding humans and livestock and the manufacture to biofuels. GILLILAND maintained that during this century the average global temperature will increase between one and four degrees centigrade, depending on what steps are taken to mitigate climate change. But his most worrying prediction is that each increase of one degree has the potential to reduce the yields of grain and milk by 10 per cent.Agriculture is a net emitter of greenhouse gases and it is clear that if all the various targets are to be met, there will have to be changes in farming practices. We could all go vegetarian, but that will not happen. Manipulating the diet of dairy cows to reduce emissions is one possibility, but the trouble is that far too little money is being invested in research and development – and that has been the case right across the entire spectrum of agricultural science. Gilliland reckons that expenditure on R&D needs to be trebled to fuel the "next green revolution". I tend to agree with that assertion and share his view that agriculture can be part of the solution to climate change and not the guilty party.