Tumult Surrounds G-8 Summit, But Bush Is Bullish on Progress

By JOHN D. MCKINNONJuly 7, 2008

RUSUTSU, Japan -- As world leaders arrived Sunday in Japan for their annual summit, the Group of Eight is experiencing some of the greatest transformations -- and troubles -- in its history.
Prospects were doubtful for this year's big initiative on greenhouse-gas limits, amid concerns that strict emissions caps might burden the emerging nations that influence the G-8, and even harm some developed nations that are hurting economically.
Associated Press
In a joint news conference Sunday, President George W. Bush expressed greater optimism than Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda of Japan about the prospects for a substantial climate agreement at the G-8 summit in Japan.
In a news conference Sunday, President George W. Bush sought to dispel speculation that the summit may not be productive. "I've got a pretty good sense about when a G-8 is going to be a success or maybe not such a success, [and] this one's going to be a success," he said. But the summit's host, Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, was more cautious about prospects for a substantial climate agreement. "What the results will be -- well, we have to wait until the conclusion comes out," Mr. Fukuda said during his joint appearance with Mr. Bush.
The summit participants are headed toward an agreement for international food reserves to help the poorest countries deal with soaring grain prices. But progress on other fronts has appeared to slow in recent days, as differences between the old-line and emerging countries have become obvious, and more-immediate worries about the global economy have intensified.
Increasing disagreements are the price the G-8 is paying to maintain its relevance. The clubby group that became the G-8 -- conceived in the mid-1970s in the wake of the oil embargo of 1973 and the resulting global recession -- traditionally comprised the U.S., Japan, Canada and Europe's industrial powers -- France, Germany, Italy and the U.K. Russia joined in 1998.
But starting with the 2000 Okinawa summit, worries about globalization led the G-8 to start inviting representatives of the emerging economies. And in 2005, concerns about climate change led it to invite China, India, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa, countries that have attended "outreach" sessions ever since.
Nonetheless, there are calls to expand or revamp the G-8's membership to reflect the new global realities. The traditional membership "no longer has the power and wealth to resolve the world's major problems," explains Carlos Pascual, director of foreign policy at the Washington-based Brookings Institution, a left-leaning think tank. On a variety of issues, "a much wider representation of countries has become necessary."
But as the G-8 meetings grow, it becomes more difficult to reach consensus on some fundamental problems. U.S. officials complain that protectionist sentiment among some of the big emerging economies has held up progress on the Doha Round of trade negotiations. The presence of Russia -- an influential oil and gas producer -- also complicates discussions on energy security.
The wave of change also is exposing old-line member countries -- and particularly the U.S. -- to uncomfortable new criticisms. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev -- with whom Mr. Bush is scheduled to meet Monday -- has been particularly outspoken in recent days, saying the U.S. is in a virtual depression and that it is time to reconsider the world's dollar-centric financial order.
Mr. Fukuda, the summit chairman, aims to act as the diplomatic bridge between the U.S. and its critics, particularly on climate change. U.S. officials had hoped to reach agreements on binding interim limits for all the major economies through 2020, as well as long-term targets for global emissions by about 2050. But over the weekend, they said privately that they might fall short of their goal, due in part to resistance from emerging countries such as India. With per-capita energy consumption that is far below that of the developed countries, India faces political opposition at home to limiting its emissions growth.
Some environmentalists say the Bush administration and its allies aren't so eager for a breakthrough agreement on climate change. They say the U.S. is trying to avoid tough short-term curbs on its energy consumption, while it seeks to draw the emerging economies into a long-term climate-control regime that eventually will place strict caps on them.
In a best-case scenario for the summit, the developing countries could agree to the need for a long-term global target -- say, a 50% reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050 -- in exchange for broadly worded promises by the G-8 countries to take the lead in reductions over the next decade or so. That would leave the tough negotiations over specific country-by-country limits to be accomplished in time for an agreement that the United Nations hopes to conclude by the end of next year.
Write to John D. McKinnon at john.mckinnon@wsj.com