Coal rush questioned as bridge for energy gap

By Fiona Harvey and Jean Eaglesham
Published: August 1 2008 04:10

Environmental groups will on Friday mount a fresh attack on the government’s rationale for supporting more coal, publishing a study that suggests no new stations will be needed to bridge the looming “energy gap”, provided the UK’s energy efficiency and renewables targets are met.
The research will intensify the pressure on Gordon Brown, prime minister, to rescind his backing for Eon’s proposed new £1.5bn ($3bn) Kingsnorth plant in Kent, either by referring it to a public inquiry and so delaying development by years or rejecting it altogether.

The government to date shows no sign of wavering, arguing there is a compelling case for starting a new “coal rush”. One of the central planks of ministers’ arguments rests on the forecast energy gap – the shortfall of electricity supply compared with peak demand – that will be created by existing coal-fired and nuclear power stations shutting down. Experts fear this gap could exceed 20GW, equivalent to almost a third of current generation, by 2020.
But Greenpeace and WWF will on Friday publish a study that directly contradicts ministerial assertions that new coal-fired power stations are needed to ensure the UK does not suffer black-outs. The research by Poyry, the consultancy, states that the energy gap can be bridged by renewable energy. The proviso is that the UK must improve energy efficiency by 20 per cent by 2020, as required by the European Union, and meet government targets of generating about 35 to 40 per cent of electricity from renewable sources, such as wind farms.
Even taking into account the need for back-up generation in case the wind does not blow, the Poyry study found there will be no call for new fossil fuel power stations until after 2020, largely because of assumed reductions in demand.
The government faces a dilemma – it cannot counter the biggest weakness in the new study without admitting to its own fallibilities. Keeping the lights on without sanctioning an increase in fossil fuels may not be possible if the UK fails to meet the EU target of generating 15 per cent of its energy from renewables by 2020. All sides agree that meeting this target – which translates into between 30 and 40 per cent of electricity – will be a struggle. The UK generates less than 5 per cent of electricity from renewables at present.
The Financial Times’ interview on Friday with Malcolm Wicks, the energy minister, suggests that the government is widening its argument for new coal beyond the confines of energy statistics. Tackling the climate change issue head on, Mr Wicks argued that taking the global moral high ground by banning coal stations could prove counter-productive.
Technology to curb emissions can best be developed if the country has a thriving coal-fired sector, Mr Wicks suggested. “If we said ‘no, we’ll have a moratorium because decent people have said we should’, it’s difficult for us to develop that technology.” The assertion is likely to infuriate critics, who claim the government is in danger of locking the country into a high carbon future on the promise of the eventual deployment of a technology that may not work or prove cost-effective.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008