Airport expansion must be halted to meet CO2 target, say climate scientists

Only practical solution to meet emissions target is for airline industry to curb demand for flying, says climate scientist
Alok Jha, green technology correspondent
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday November 18 2008 00.01 GMT

There should be a moratorium on the expansion of all UK airports if the government's ambitious targets to cut CO2 emissions by 60% by 2050 are to have any chance of success, according to a leading climate scientist.
Kevin Anderson, a climate scientist at the University of Manchester's Tyndall Centre, said that technologies will not arrive quickly enough to offset the projected increase in air passenger numbers and that the only practical solution for the industry is to curb the demand for flying.
Speaking at a Royal Society meeting of energy and climate experts today, Anderson will also say that government plans to allow the aviation industry to buy carbon credits to cover its increased pollution will not be enough to reduce emissions.
The warning comes as the transport secretary, Geoff Hoon, is expected to give the all-clear to an expansion of Heathrow airport next month, which would see a new runway in place by 2030 and increase the number of flights from 480,000 to 700,000 a year.
The UK government wants the country to cut overall greenhouse gas emissions so that the average global temperature rise is no more than 2C. Last month the climate secretary, Ed Miliband, announced that aviation, a sector with rapidlygrowing carbon emissions, would be included in carbon trading markets such as the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). In principle, this means that increases in greenhouse gas emissions from flying can be used to pay for decreases in other sectors.
Anderson and his colleague Alice Bows, modelled how CO2 emissions from aviation would change, taking into account potential new technologies to make planes more efficient. Their report concluded: "We delude ourselves if our aspirations for a 2°C future resides substantially in the current framing of the EU emissions trading scheme and the low-carbon technologies and practices that they may engender. Whilst technology undoubtedly has an important medium and long-term role to play in reducing the carbon intensity of aviation, it is negligent and irresponsible not to engage with the sector's short-term emissions growth. The urgency with which the industry must make the transition to a low-carbon pathway leaves no option, but to instigate a radical and immediate programme of demand management."
Since the early 1990s, passenger numbers have grown by 7% a year in the UK and the CO2 emissions from planes have tracked this rise, despite the improved efficiencies in modern aircraft. "Whenever you hear the industry talking about there being significant improvements in efficiency, there is no historical link that you can pick out of the data, certainly over the last 15-20 years," said Anderson. "That's not to say planes haven't got better but the way they're being used — more taxiing, more circling, less direct flights – means that CO2 and passenger numbers have remained aligned."
Aviation currently produces around 41m tonnes of CO2 in the UK, accounting for around 7% of the country's emissions —this is still half of that from cars but it is growing at a much quicker rate than road transport. By 2030, Anderson predicts that aviation could account for two-thirds of the UK's total emissions if it continues to grow at its current rate of 7% a year. To keep the country's overall emissions cuts on target, other sectors such as energy and transport would have to make deep cuts. Unfortnately, said Anderson, no other sector has yet demonstrated that it can make overall CO2 reductions, never mind the significant drops required to offset aviation.
Anderson said there was little option left for the government. "There should be a compete moratorium on airport expansion prior to including aviation in the emissions trading scheme."
He admits that aviation is likely to remain a privileged sector because of the technical issues involved in solving its pollution problems.
Many in the airline industry pin their hopes on improved efficiencies in a range of areas such as more direct flight paths and lighter construction materials. But plans to coordinate air-traffic control systems across Europe and shorten flight paths, which proponents say could cut CO2 emissions by 10%, have been beset with political problems.
Anderson added that composite materials, which will make airplanes such as Boeing's forthcoming 777 Dreamliner 20% more efficient than modern planes, could inadvertently end up opening up new markets for passengers. "Travelling to the hub airports are a disincentive for a lot of people to fly. If people can fly from their local airports, they'll fly more long haul. The new Boeing is 20% more efficient than the older generation and will open up a new market."
But new technologies will take decades to penetrate the airline market. Aircraft designs change very little for many decades and planes themselves remain in service for around 30 years.
Anderson also warned against blindly jumping to other apparent solutions such as high-speed trains across the UK. A new train line between London and Manchester may kill off the domestic flight market between the cities but, unless there are specific policies to stop it, he warned that the vacated landing slots may end up in the hands of long-haul operators and increase carbon emissions overall.
Friends of the Earth's aviation campaigner, Richard Dyer said: "The government has put the interests of the aviation industry ahead of the environment for far too long – but ministers cannot continue to ignore the warnings from climate change experts.
"Aviation is one of the UK's fastest growing sources of carbon dioxide. We must curb the growth in air travel if we genuinely want to tackle global warming.
"Ministers must urgently review the UK's aviation strategy, scrap their reckless airport expansion plans and invest in alternatives to short-haul flights, such as faster rail travel."