Wednesday 26 November 2008

The green revolution postponed

The environmental catastrophe makes recession look insignificant, yet Darling's plans will make it worse

Mark Lynas
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday November 25 2008 11.30 GMT

A "green new deal" it ain't. More motorways, cheaper fuel, more of the same. The planet's ecological crisis makes the current financial crisis look like, well, something very small and insignificant indeed. Had he aimed to shift the UK economy on to a greener track, creating jobs and reflating the economy at the same time, things might be looking more positive. But he just doesn't seem to get it.
Let's examine the specifics. Flick to page 136 and the government boasts: "The cost of petrol and diesel will fall for private motorists who should see no increase in the price they pay at the pump this year from this measure." (This is mainly due to the VAT cut, which will overwhelm the long-postponed 2p-per-litre increase in fuel duty, now due to be introduced from December 1.) Oh goody – cheaper driving, and more cars on the roads. Better widen the motorways even further. Don't worry, they've thought of that: £700bn of road-building cash is being brought forward. (Although some of it also has to provide "up to" 200 new railway carriages, hardly enough to help the train take the strain.)
There's also some capital spending on energy efficiency – but here the striking thing is just how unimaginative and anaemic the current targets are. An enormous 60,000 houses will get better insulation. We need to be talking levels of ambition two orders of magnitude greater than this – with 24m households in the UK, the government is only going to be making 0.25% of them more efficient. I doubt the penguins will notice.
The VAT cut is central to the plan in order to "get consumers spending again". I don't blame the chancellor for this especially, but it does highlight the essentially ecocidal nature of the current free-market system: unless we're all frantically rushing around buying more lipstick and fridges, the economy judders to a halt and starts to implode in on itself as the pyramid of debt on which the whole thing rests begins to collapse. This suggests to me that warm-hearted green measures like being more frugal, efficient and consuming less "stuff" are actually impossible or counter-productive in conventional economic terms – it's exactly what the chancellor is trying to stop us doing. If we all start turning off the lights and saving bits of string, the economy will continue to collapse, making millions unemployed.
Of course, investment in "green growth" could theoretically take us in a different direction – but the government has shied away from the challenge. At the moment renewables are taking a big hit from the credit crunch – with private sector cash drying up, wind, solar and other projects are being postponed or cancelled around the world. Nuclear, which needs big upfront capital investments, is also looking much less positive. Once again, the public sector needs to take a more guiding role – providing loan guarantees, making direct investments and generally helping to ease credit. Coal and other dirty fuels need not apply.
It's pretty clear now that Britain isn't going to be leading the "green revolution". Let's see if Obama can do any better. I've still got hope.