Temperature set to rise by 6C, energy agency warns

Robin Pagnamenta

Long-term global temperatures are on course to rise by 6C (43F) unless radical changes are adopted in the way that the world produces energy, the International Energy Agency (IAE) said yesterday.
In its 2008 World Energy Outlook, the IEA said that if present trends continued, greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of coal, oil and gas “would be driven up inexorably”, putting the world on track for a doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels by the end of the century.
The IEA said that the biggest single contributor to global emissions over the next two decades was likely to be the use of coal - the world's second- most important fuel after oil, accounting for 26 per cent of energy demand.
It said that coal production was set to rise by 60 per cent between 2006 and 2030, with 90 per cent of the increase coming from developing countries. Chinese coal output alone is expected to double. Global demand for the fuel has been growing at nearly 5 per cent per year since 2000, compared with total energy demand growth of about half this level, or 2.6 per cent.

The IEA said that to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalent - which would limit the temperature increase to a more manageable 2C- a sharp drop in all emissions would be necessary from 2020 onwards.
Nobuo Tanaka, the IEA's executive director, said: “We would need concerted action from all major emitters. Our analysis shows that OECD countries alone cannot put the world on to a 450ppm trajectory even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero.”
This would require the use of lowcarbon energy to account for 36 per cent of global energy production by 2030, up from 19 per cent in 2006.
Environmental campaigners, such as Robin Webster, of Friends of the Earth, welcomed the IEA's call for an “energy revolution”to address climate change, claiming that it could provide economic benefits through the creation of new “green-collar” jobs.