China waits for US climate signal

Until the new US administration makes clear its climate policy, China will not be moved from its opposition to internationally binding goals for emissions reductions. Jonathan Watts reports from Beijing

Jonathan Watts
guardian.co.uk, Monday December 8 2008 08.56 GMT

China sees the mechanics of technology transfer as the most likely area of progress at the Poznan summit, but negotiators downplay the likelihood of any major breakthroughs while the US is between administrations.
Beijing's position has not fundamentally changed since Bali, which means it will resist setting internationally binding goals for emissions reductions.
Before taking that step, it seeks assistance in building up a system to measure, report and verify emissions. This is a challenge in such a large country, where factories and local governments are supposed to voluntarily disclose data on emissions. Negotiators argue it is pointless to set a target if there is no accurate way to gauge the extent of the problem.
"I don't think it is realistic or feasible to set a specific emissions target at a national level," said a member of the negotiating team. "Politically, I don't think it is possible to set targets."
China has set non-binding domestic goals on energy efficiency, renewable energy use and the reduction of pollutants, including several greenhouse gases. Foreign diplomats praise the targets, but say implementation is patchy.
Without a metering system, emissions data is unreliable. Factories and local governments underreport gases like sulphur dioxide to avoid levies, or overreport when being assessed for permits. In the absence of any measurement of carbon emissions, estimates are based on energy usage statistics, which are also unreliable.
In academia, there is a growing debate on the issue, with one prominent government adviser, Hu Angang, urging China to score diplomatic points by fixing binding targets. But this is a minority position. Many other senior scientists are even sceptical that mankind has a significant impact on climate change.
The Chinese government is positioned between these two camps. It acknowledges a human contribution to global warming, but stresses that the main responsibility lies with developed nations. Before setting binding targets, China wants its economy to catch up more with the West. It seeks financial and technical assistance to mitigate the impact of climate change.
Earlier this month, the Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao, called on rich nations to abandon their "unsustainable lifestyle", saying the financial crisis was no excuse for inaction on climate change.
In a climate change policy paper last month, China said developed countries should contribute at least 0.7% of their GDP to help poorer nations acquire clean technology and to cope with the floods, droughts and storms created by rising temperatures.
In reality, few wealthy countries stump up this much cash for their entire aid budgets. In negotiations, China and other developing nations are likely to seek a lower, but still substantial sum of several tens of billions of dollars.
Given the current financial crisis, some European nations are already balking at the cost of previous climate change commitments, let alone any new additions. But the Chinese official said the amounts should be put in perspective of how much rich governments have spent rescuing financial institutions.
"The US can allocate $700bn for saving banks. We don't expect the same for the climate, but this is a reference for people to make a judgment. Compared to several hundred billion, several dozen billion is nothing," he said.
But, like the rest of the world, China is waiting to see what change of US policy will come with the Obama administration. Officials see the incoming president as more positive and active than Bush on climate change. But they expect him first to press for a domestic policy change and only then to switch to international dealmaking.