Has the Kyoto protocol worked?

David Adam, environment correspondent
The Guardian, Monday December 8 2008

Agreed in 1997, the Kyoto protocol aimed to cut emissions of greenhouse gases across the developed world by about 5% compared with 1990. It came into force in 2005, following ratification by Russia, which means the deadline for the legally binding cuts to be made is 2008-12. It was based on the "common but differentiated responsibility" approach to global warming, with countries most able to make cuts asked to do so. Many countries were allowed to increase pollution, including all those in the developing world. Most controversially, Kyoto introduced mechanisms such as carbon trading to help countries meet their targets in "flexible" ways - often in other countries - rather than by making cuts at home.
Figures released by the UN last month suggest the world is on track to meet its Kyoto targets for greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons. Emissions by the 40 industrialised nations that agreed binding cuts in pollution are down 5% on 1990 levels. But the drop has little to do with climate policies: the bulk of the decline is down to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent economic decline in eastern Europe in the 1990s. Without these so-called "economies in transition", greenhouse gas emissions have grown by almost 10% since 1990.
Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UN climate secretariat, said the figures showed emissions were rising once again in eastern Europe. "The biggest recent increase in emissions of industrialised countries has come from economies in transition, which have seen a rise of 7.4% in greenhouse gas emissions within the 2000 to 2006 time frame," he said.
Among industrialised nations, 16 are on target to meet their Kyoto obligations, including France, the UK, Greece and Hungary, the UN said. Some
20 countries are off-course, including Canada, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, New Zealand and Spain. Nations that miss their Kyoto target in 2012 will incur a penalty of an additional third added to whatever cut they agree under a new treaty in Copenhagen.
Has Kyoto worked? "In terms of emission reductions achieved, the answer would be no," De Boer said. "A 5% cut is a pretty small step on what will be a long and arduous journey. On the other hand, Kyoto has had great success in putting an architecture in place. Monitoring and verification systems, carbon markets, technology transfer and funds for adaptation have all been mobilised by Kyoto," he said. "I think this is a fabulous architecture that we can build on on the road to Copenhagen."