Cutting the carbon: Labour's failure contains lessons all parties must heed

Whoever wins the next election will face tougher emissions targets than the current government has had to deal with

Stephen Hale
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 5 February 2009 15.47 GMT

On the face of it, Tuesday should have been a good news day for Labour and a small step back from the catastrophic own goal of the Heathrow runway decision.
Figures for UK emissions in 2007 showed a small drop in greenhouse gas and carbon dioxide emissions for the fourth year in a row. The UK is one of the few countries that will comfortably meet its commitments under the Kyoto protocol.
But press coverage of the announcement was overwhelmingly negative. Some of the coverage highlighted the exclusion from the figures of aviation emissions and the contribution of UK imports and consumption. In both cases, the government's reasonable defence is that it uses the current agreed international methodologies.
But the main focus of criticism was a rod of the government's own making. Labour's commitment to reduce emissions by 20% by 2010 was in its 1997, 2001 and 2005 manifestos. Despite the latest fall, this target is now well out of reach. Labour will carry its failure to meet this commitment into the next election.
The opposition will make the most of this, but all three parties with ambitions to lead or participate in the next government must also learn the lessons from Labour's failure.
The 20% target was self-imposed. But, thanks to the Climate Change Act, whoever wins the next election will face emissions targets far more deeply enshrined and politically totemic than Labour has had to deal with.
The parliamentary debate on the act was a bidding war in which the parties sought to outbid one another in advocating tough targets for 2020 and 2050. It also created the climate change committee, chaired by Lord Adair Turner, which has proposed three five-year budgets for emissions, covering the next 15 years (and probably the next three parliaments).
The chancellor, Alistair Darling, is certain to adopt these in the April budget with cross-party support. In doing so, he will bind whoever wins the next election irrevocably and publicly to targets over which they have had no influence.
From my four years as a special adviser on climate change to Labour ministers from 2002-6, three lessons stand out that a future government of whatever colour(s) must heed:
• Consistent leadership from the very top is a prerequisite for success. It requires an ambitious approach across energy, housing and transport ministries, supported by the Treasury. Labour has never had ministers in all three departments determined to succeed, and still does not, and the Treasury under Gordon Brown was consistently hostile to the 20% target.
Greg Clark, the Conservative energy spokesperson, seems strongly committed to developing a strategy that will deliver. But not all Conservatives are yet signed up.
All parties have ministers with varying commitment to this cause, so it is imperative that whoever becomes prime minister takes a strong lead and pressures all members of the cabinet to deliver.
• Action must be taken at the very start of a parliament if it is to deliver results at the end of that term. The time lag between action by government and emissions reduction is a minimum of three years. For example, a new feed-in tariff for renewable energy would have to go through a process of public consultation and parliamentary legislation to enter into force. This should then lead to new investment commitments, to planning proposals, to construction and only then to new renewable energy projects that actually reduce emissions.
It's a timescale that should bring political strategists out into a cold sweat. Labour started too late. It would be a disaster for the climate and for their reputation if the next government was to make the same mistake.
• The UK government does not act alone. The devolved administrations in Edinburgh and Cardiff have considerable powers and influence over emissions and their role needs to be factored in to any strategy. But Europe is an ever bigger influence. European emissions trading rules cover 50% of the UK's emissions, and emissions and product standards are central to the UK's prospects in transport, business and, to a lesser extent, housing.
Labour's failure to meet the 2010 target will continue to be highlighted by their critics and the opposition parties. But all parties preparing for government must heed the lessons as they prepare their manifestos and plans for the next election.
• Stephen Hale is the director of the Green Alliance