Global warning

Published: March 13 2009 20:18

Don’t be misled by the recent cold winter in Europe and north America – or by this week’s conference of vocal climate change sceptics in New York. Pay attention instead to the larger gathering in Copenhagen, where mainstream scientists have issued a series of dire warnings that global warming is proceeding far faster than the scenarios published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change two years ago.
Many politicians who believe in global warming have taken some comfort from the IPCC consensus opinion that average temperatures will rise by about 2°C this century, an increase to which the world could just about adapt. Unfortunately that view is out of date, according to recent evidence presented in Copenhagen and elsewhere – ranging from the rapid thinning of Arctic ice to the unexpected vulnerability of the Amazon rainforests to drought and heat.

To reduce the real risk of a climate catastrophe, bringing untold social disruption later this century, politicians worldwide must bring a new sense of urgency to the battle against global warming. The new US president will help: Barack Obama believes personally in the need for action and his administration has a strong environmental team. As he has said, the fight against recession is no excuse to relax on the climate front.
Three main strategies are needed. The first is direct support for technologies to cut the amount of carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere; such “green investment” should be part of any economic stimulus plan. Second, judicious use of regulations can force companies and consumers to use energy more efficiently.
The third element is the most difficult: making it more expensive to emit greenhouse gases. Political constraints may rule out the most straightforward method – raising carbon taxes substantially – in some countries, including the US. If so, robust cap-and-trade schemes, imposing stringent limits on emissions, will serve well instead.
In December there will be an even bigger climate conference in Copenhagen – to agree an international treaty to follow the flawed Kyoto protocol. Intensive international negotiations will be needed over the next nine months to draw up an action plan that the whole world can endorse then.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009