Wednesday, 25 March 2009

It looked as if there was some good news

The Times
March 25, 2009

David Wighton

Europe's economy may be on its knees, but at least the downturn could postpone the day when we are washed away by the melting polar ice caps.
Carbon emissions fell about 3 per cent last year within the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), the carbon trading market that covers the heaviest polluters, and greenhouse gas emissions are expected to fall further as economies contract this year.
New Carbon Finance, a consultancy, has estimated that the recession will mean ultimately that Europe produces 7 per cent less carbon by 2020.
What has been bad for business turns out to be a virtuous cycle for carbon reduction: falling consumer demand means lower industrial output, which means less demand for electricity.

The recession will go a long way to helping industries within the ETS reach the European Union's target of cutting carbon levels 20 per cent by 2020 (compared with 1990 levels).
New Carbon Finance estimates that the cost of achieving this target has fallen by 50 per cent, or €157 billion, because fewer companies will be buying pollution permits and therefore the price of carbon will drop.
But there is a snag. From an environmental point of view, lower carbon prices are a concern because they remove some of the incentive for companies to invest in new technology.
So, what initially appears to be one of the few silver linings to this recession could make long-term carbon reductions even harder to achieve.