President Barack Obama must carry US opinion

The Times
March 30, 2009
Analysis: Lewis Smith

Playing down expectations of what the United States can do is a reality check after the optimism finally given vent by the end of the Bush Administration.
President Obama is still – just – in his honeymoon period but this masks a longstanding problem that has bedevilled hopes that the US will take a lead in combating climate change.
When President Clinton signed the Kyoto Protocol it was thought that a breakthrough had been secured; such hopes were destroyed because he never dared present it to Congress.
For all the recent promises in the US to slash greenhouse gas emissions, there remains a strong rump of scepticism on Capitol Hill and in other parts of the country.

This week’s talks in Bonn are a preliminary to the main event in December when world leaders meet in Copenhagen to try to agree each country’s burden.
If the US team promises too much it will fail, once again, to take domestic opinion with it and the deal will founder.
Todd Stern is acutely aware of the dilemma that he faces. An agreement to take effective action on climate change is unlikely, yet, to garner sufficient support in the US for ratification, but too little action is likely to have catastrophic consequences for the environment and the global economy.
President Obama and his supporters are hopeful of winning enough support to drive through a Copenhagen deal, but they need time to do it. With time so short – it is less than nine months until the Copenhagen meeting – an atmosphere of fevered expectation can only cause delays, confusion and reduce the chances of success.