Car emissions exceed forecasts

By Jim Pickard, Political Correspondent
Published: May 12 2009 03:00

New roads built in the UK since 2002 have led to double the increase in carbon emissions originally forecast by the government.
The data, which have not been publicised, could raise questions about official assumptions on road traffic emissions resulting from Heathrow's expansion.
Norman Baker - transport spokesman for the Liberal Democrats, who obtained the data - said the figures showed government concern for climate change was "little more than greenwash".
The figures come from the Highways Agency, part of the transport department, and apply to 27 big road schemes. They show that these produced an extra 21,870 tonnes of carbon - almost twice the 11,240 predicted by the government.
Mr Baker said: "This government continues to push ahead with massive road-building schemes that cost millions more than predicted, as well as increase traffic and carbon emissions. These huge schemes are responsible for thousands of tonnes of extra carbon emissions every year."
Richard George of the Campaign for Better Transport, said the figures showed that the government was not only underestimating carbon emissions but had "no workable method" of making such forecasts. "The estimates were nowhere near what actually happened, it seems they don't know how to work out what carbon emissions will be," he said.
"There were some projects where they expected an increase and there was a decrease, or vice versa.
"Overall it was a massive underestimate."
The Highways Agency said the figures should be put in perspective - they only showed net changes rather than total emissions produced.
However, the data might raise concerns about the prospect of enlarging Heathrow without breaching European guidelines. There were already fears about the high level of pollutants, such as nitrogen oxide, in the air around the airport - much of which comes from cars rather than aircraft. Lord Smith, chairman of the Environment Agency, has told the Financial Times that nitrogen oxide in places near Heathrow already broke limits which were about to become statutory.
A report by BAA, which owns the airport, has estimated that a third runway would generate more than 10m extra car and taxi journeys each year.
Mr George did not know whether the DfT was using similar modelling for its Heathrow pollution forecasts. But he said: "It is worrying . . . I would also want to know the difference between modelling for this and for aviation work."
Geoff Hoon, transport secretary, has pledged to prevent Heathrow's expansion if air quality conditions are not met.
A DfT spokesman said: "We published our decision on the third runway in January this year and at the time we highlighted the measures we would take to mitigate the environmental impact of the runway."
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009