From cider makers to flood fighters - how the UK climate projections will be used

The UK climate impacts report is aimed at organisations whose investment decisions will be affected by global warming

David Adam
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 18 June 2009 12.43 BST

The Environment Agency had a sneak preview of the new projections, and has used them to prepare a new strategy on flood risk investment, to be unveiled tomorrow. It looks up to 2035, which irons out some of the subtleties in the new analysis, as the likely change in climate is more or less fixed for the next few decades. Tony Grayling, head of climate change and sustainable development at the agency, said the results are similar to previous estimates, so the agency's existing plans for flood defences are still reliable. "We'll see if we need to adjust anything but we think they're reasonably sound. We want our adaptation planning to be flexible and to accommodate a range of possible scenarios."
The cider makers
The National Association of Cider Makers is already aware of the impact a changing climate could have on its industry. A report published last year with the help of the UK Climate Impacts Programme at Oxford University looked at the likely effects over the next 30 years, in particular the expected lifetime of new orchards. "It's very difficult to look that far ahead, but the climate project showed us the boundaries we must be aware of, to look for the Exocet coming over the horizon," said Nick Bradstock, an adviser to the committee. "It is a leap of faith to plant an orchard and growers need to be clear they will get a return."
Cider apples like to grow in a narrow range of temperatures, and need winter frost. Growers may have to follow the suitable weather north, Bradstock said. Others are looking how to breed more robust apple varieties, and make trees more resistant to increased winter storms. Little has changed so far. The industry is "a bit of a supertanker" and will take time to change direction, he said.
While cider makers face an uncertain future, cider sellers have a smile on their faces. Cider consumption "noticeably increases during warmer, sunnier weather," the report noted. "It could only take people to have an extra half pint of cider a month to develop the market massively," Bradstock said.
The water company
Anglian Water is already preparing for a 60% drop in rainfall in the summer, and a 30% increase in winter, based on previous predictions. Better information will lead to better decisions on infrastructure such as new reservoirs, says Andy Brown, climate change and environmental performance manager with the company. "The increased resolution and probabilities will help to give us more focus. The decisions won't be based purely on climate change projections, but they are a factor."
The breakdown into smaller regions will help too. "Rainfall can be very localised so it will help us make plans to deal with events."
The local government
Buildings such as schools are expensive and long-lasting. And they need to be built with future climate in mind, says Paul Bettison, chair of the environment board at the Local Government Association. "We need to start encouraging people to plan for the future. Schools in other countries more used to blistering hot summers are built with large amounts of shade. Our teachers chase people out of shady classrooms to enjoy the sunshine."
Better projections of climate in the 2050s and even the 2080s can help local authorities to force developers to adapt their designs, he says. And while existing regulations only insist on a minimum temperature inside buildings such as schools, that is likely to change to include maximum temperature too. "When the original act was written in the 1960s nobody had heard of climate change," he said. "Simply building in dirty great air conditioning units is not the answer."