Air travel may have to be rationed in the future says Government climate change advisers

The era of cheap air travel cannot continue, according to Government advisers, who have called for a global cap on aviation emissions to prevent catastrophic climate change.

By Louise Gray, Environment CorrespondentPublished: 7:00AM BST 09 Sep 2009

Air travel is expected to at least double by the middle of the century as new airlines spring up in developing countries like China and rich countries like Britain expand airports such as Heathrow.
However the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) fears unlimited growth of air travel will cause greenhouse gas emissions to increase and therefore cause global warming.
In a letter to the Secretaries of State for Climate Change and Transport, the committee calls for global aviation emissions to be capped at 2005 levels by 2050.
They said that this does not mean that the number of flights will be cut in the short term.
However, unless new technology allowing planes to fly without producing so many greenhouse gases is invented very soon, it does mean that the world cannot afford to take more flights than currently are taken.
David Kennedy, Chief Executive of the CCC, said the era of each generation being able to fly more than the last was over and flights may get more expensive as a way of rationing.
"You may want to go on holiday more that you do now. But you may not be able to do that in a carbon-constrained world," he said.
The CCC is calling for the Government to push for a global cap on aviation emissions as part of any deal climate change deal to be decided by the UN in Copenhagen at the end of the year.
All aviation emissions should be capped, but there could be a period where flights in and out of rich countries would be targeted, while those between developing countries were exempt, the letter suggested.
Any deal to reduce emissions from flying should be "ambitious", and aim for no less than the EU's current plans which require a 5 per cent reduction in emissions from 2013 to 2020.
Mr Kennedy insisted such measures would not force people to fly less than they currently do.
However he said the air travel "may well be rationed" in the future to stop the growth of emissions.
"We can do a lot with bio-fuels in the future but there is a big question about food security and how much land would be needed. So we certainly have to think seriously about constraining demand," he said.
Mr Kennedy said the committee favoured using a "cap and trade scheme" as a system of rationing. This is already due to come in in the EU from 2012. It forces airlines to buy "emissions permits" for producing pollution. As the number of permits is reduced in order to bring down emissions the price will go up and that cost will ultimately be passed onto customers.
"We have to think seriously about constraining demand and the way we do that is to have high fares to reflect carbon prices," he added.
In the past Lord Turner, the chairman of the CCC, said that people should be given personal flight limits.
The Committee on Climate Change was set up to advise the Government on how to meet climate change targets. At the moment the UK is committed to cutting greenhouse gases by 34 per cent by 2020 and 80 per cent by 2050.
The CCC report comes as a think tank suggested that the unless the UK manages to meet tough targets on cutting greenhouse gases within the next three years, everyone in the UK will have to be rationed on the amount of energy, car use and flights they take.
The Institute for Public Policy Research suggested people have a certain amount of carbon credits that limits the amount they can spend on luxuries like air travel.
At the end of the year 90 countries will meet in Copenhagen for the UN Climate Change Conference to decide a replacement fro the Kyoto Protocol.
The UK is arguing for a "tough" deal that forces rich countries to cut emissions by between 25 to 40 per cent by 2020 as well as spending billions on helping poor countries to adapt to climate change.
However David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, said the complexity of the issue, other problems such as the recession clouding the political agenda and "suspicion" between rich and poor countries put any chance of a deal in "real danger".
The International Air Transport Association said air travel can continue to grow without increasing emissions because of biofuels and more efficient flying.