China's Hu to Outline Emissions Proposal

By SHAI OSTER and IAN JOHNSON
BEIJING -- China's President Hu Jintao is expected to commit China to reducing carbon use but won't pledge any absolute caps on its greenhouse-gas emissions, according to analysts -- which could disappoint diplomats and climate-change activists who had hoped for more from the world's biggest greenhouse-gas producer.
In a speech Tuesday before a United Nations summit on climate change, Mr. Hu is expected to say that China will include so-called carbon intensity targets in its next five-year plan, the economic blueprint for 2011-2015. That promise could help China take the global lead in the climate-change debate, even as it dovetails with domestic policies already in place.
But China would only promise to use less carbon per dollar of economic product -- not reduce emissions overall. That may fail to impress U.S. lawmakers, to whom activists are also looking for concessions if a substantive international agreement is to be reached by December at a conference in Copenhagen. Proposed U.S. legislation would impose caps, but manufacturers argue that will hurt them in competition with China and other developing countries.
A carbon intensity target would encourage China to burn more efficiently and rely more on cleaner alternatives, but won't limit how much coal China uses.
Setting up carbon as a standard could set a framework for any future caps because China would need to measure its carbon emissions for the first time. But analysts warn that China's economy is growing so fast it could wipe out any gains made in other parts of the world unless it pursues a deep cut overall.
China has said it wants a deal at the Copenhagen meeting to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which is set to expire in 2012.
Write to Shai Oster at shai.oster@wsj.com and Ian Johnson at ian.johnson@wsj.com