Chinese government adviser warns that 2C global warming target is unrealistic

China's emissions unlikely to fall low enough because 2C target 'does not provide room for developing countries'
Jonathan Watts, Asia environment correspondent
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 16 September 2009 15.13 BST
Don't expect China to keep global warming below 2C, a senior government adviser warned in Beijing today at the launch of an influential report on the nation's prospects for low-carbon growth.
Even in a best-case scenario with massive investment in solar energy and carbon capture technology, Dai Yande, deputy chief of the Energy Research Institute, said China's emissions were unlikely to fall low enough to remain below the temperature goal recommended by the G8 and European Union.
His prediction will alarm those governments and scientists who warn that a rise more than 2C risks disastrous consequences in terms of food security, migration, sea-level rises and extreme weather events.
"You should not target China to fulfill the two degree target. That is just a vision. Reality has deviated from that vision," said Dai. "We do not think that target provides room for developing countries." China argues that its priority must be economic growth to relieve poverty among its vast population.
Dai – whose think tank works under the government's powerful National Development and Reform Commission – blamed rich nations for excessive consumption and for failing to reach the targets set at Kyoto.
"Twenty percent of the world's population takes 80% of wealth and emits 70% of greenhouse gases," he said. "I think two
degrees is a vision that is difficult to fulfill because few countries have reached Kyoto protocol targets, except the UK and some others in the EU."
Dai stressed that his comments are not official government policy, but they are consistent with a hardening of positions ahead of the Copenhagen climate change summit in December.
Dai was speaking at the launch of the most influential study ever carried out in China on the possibility of the country moving toward a low carbon path of development.
The detailed study, which was conducted by 10 institutions including universities and the World Wildlife Fund, was built on a preparatory study published last month.
Under its most ambitious scenario, China's overall emissions would peak between 2030 and 2035, assuming generous financial assistance from rich nations, technological transfer, changed consumer habits, enormous investment in renewable energies and large-scale economic restructuring.
Dai said he thought it was unlikely that the two most optimistic scenarios could be achieved because of the huge cost of expanding solar and wind power and capturing carbon. Even under the least ambitious scenario China would have to invest 89.9 trillion yuan by 2050.
Professor He Jiankun, a co-author and the former executive vice president of Tsinghua University, said China faced huge obstacles in moving to a low carbon path because it was still in the midst of development. "There are a huge number of cities to be built. They will consume a large amount of steel and cement. This means that emissions will not be reduced for some time."
He said the report was not national policy, but it was a blue-print for change.
The WWF signed the recommendations and Yang Fuqiang, director of global climate solutions at the China office of WWF, said developing nations were making a "heroic" effort to reduce carbon. He added that governments in richer countries used the excuse of democracy to claim it was "politically impossible" to make bigger cuts.
He said China would suffer more than any other country as a result of climate change, but it was unlikely to shift direction on emissions any time soon.
"China emits most carbon in the world. We don't want this hat, but we may have to wear it for many more years," he said.
The Chinese state council is currently debating a major new plan for renewable energy and there is speculation that it will also announce a carbon intensity target in its economic plan for the first time, but they have yet to show their hand ahead of Copenhagen.
President Hu Jintao is expected to outline some measures at a major United Nations summit on climate change next week.
Until now, Beijing has focused its efforts on technological development. Dai said this was a hope, though it was a wild card.
"Technological innovation is hard to measure," he said. "Nobody could imagine in the 1960s that everyone would have a cellphone and internet access."