Seeing through Hu's hazy policy

Activists expect progress despite the president's vague pledge on emissions
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ASIA
Is Chinese President Hu Jintao's promise to make a "significant cut" in carbon-dioxide emissions by 2020 just a lot of hot air?
While disappointed that China's leader didn't pledge a hard number in his speech before the United Nations on Tuesday, climate activists still think there's some fire beneath the smoke. And in China, where local bureaucrats and executives at state-owned companies and banks are keenly sensitive to political shifts, the smoke will send an important signal that low-carbon projects will get priority for bank loans and regulatory approval.
"This is a step in the right direction and seriously challenges industrialized countries, especially the U.S., to take on their fair share of reducing emissions and protecting the world from climate catastrophe," said Greenpeace China's climate expert Yang Ailun.
Mr. Hu said China will try to decrease the amount of carbon dioxide that is used for each dollar of economic output. In other words, it's a relative measure that doesn't limit total emissions. If China's economy keeps growing fast, it will pump out more greenhouse gases, just at a slower rate than without the measure. Since China has already surpassed the U.S. as the world's biggest contributor to greenhouse gases, climate activists applaud any measures to slow down, even if a total cap is their ultimate goal.
Already, there are signs that China is serious. A day after Mr. Hu's speech, the government's tax authorities published a detailed blueprint on how to roll out a carbon tax by 2012. That is the year when the global climate treaty to be negotiated in December in Copenhagen will take effect, succeeding the current one. China faces mounting cries from Europe and the U.S. for greenhouse-gas duties on imports from countries that don't have a carbon cap to level the playing field.
A domestic carbon tax could head off those duties that would raise the price of China's exports, an essential part of the nation's economy. The proposed tax would exempt households and there's no guarantee a tax on commercial use of fossil-fuel emissions will ultimately take effect. Similar resource taxes have undergone drawn-out debate before they were finally rolled out.—Shai Oster, with contributions from Jing Yang