Worst climate change offenders to escape effects, report claims

Ben Webster, Environment Editor
Countries which are contributing most to climate change, including Britain, will be shielded from its worst effects, according to a study which ranks nations according to their vulnerability to global warming.
The poorest countries, including most of Africa and much of south Asia, face “extreme risk” from climate change despite having very low greenhouse gas emissions.
Countries with the highest emissions are the least vulnerable, largely because they will be able to use their wealth to mitigate the impacts.
Somalia, Haiti and Afghanistan come top of the “climate change vulnerability index” while Norway, Finland and Japan come bottom and face very low risk.
The index was calculated from dozens of variables measuring the capacity of a country to cope with the consequences of global warming. They included the proportion of land less than 10 metres above sea level, the size and distribution of the population, the strength of the economy, the security of supply of key resources and the stability of the government.
Britain came close to the bottom, ranked 155th out of the 166 countries in the study by Maplecroft, a Bath-based company that provides global risk intelligence for businesses. It said Britain was a low risk country because it has secure supplies of food and water, well-protected ecosystems and strong institutions able to respond well to threats from rising temperature and sea levels.
However, Britain scored less well on energy security because it was increasingly dependent on imported gas and oil. A “vulnerability map” accompanying the study also showed several low-lying coastal areas at high risk, including in Norfolk, Essex and near Hull.
The United States and Australia, the largest per capita emitters of CO2 among developed nations, are comfortably within the top 15 countries least at risk. These two countries are also among those with a long track record of resisting binding international targets on cutting CO2 emissions.
Russia was deemed to be at low risk and China and Brazil at medium risk. These countries will play a key role in determining whether December’s UN climate summit in Copenhagen produces an effective international treaty on cutting emissions.
A Greenpeace spokesman noted the irony that Norway was the least vulnerable country partly because it had built enormous wealth from exporting oil and gas. Of the 28 nations deemed at extreme risk, 22 are in Africa. Bangladesh is the 12th most vulnerable country, largely because of the high proportion of the population living close to sea level.
India is the only major economy in the 55 countries in the next tier which are facing a “high risk”.
The study found that India was vulnerable because of its population density, security risks and especially its lack of secure resources

Ban Ki-moon, the UN Secretary-General, gave a gloomy assessment yesterday of the world’s response to the threat of climate change.
“Our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are heading towards an abyss,” he said in a speech in Geneva.
He said a pledge by the Group of 8 industrialised countries this summer for a long-term 80 percent cut in emissions by 2050 was not sufficient.
“I continue to believe that they should have a mid-term target,” he added.
The UN leader, who visited the Arctic this week, said melting ice in the polar region would threaten major cities and the lives of up to 130 million people.
Research published yesterday revealed that Arctic summer temperatures are now higher than at any time in the last 2,000 years. Temperatures began to climb in 1900 and suddenly accelerated after 1950.
Arctic summers are 1.2C warmer now than they were in 1900, according to the team of researchers from several academic institutions, including Arizona University, Colorado University and the University of East Anglia.
THE MOST (AND LEAST) VULNERABLE COUNTRIES...
Risk level: E-extreme; H-high; M-medium; L-low. The higher the number, the less at-risk)
1 Somalia E
2 Haiti E
3 Afghanistan E
4 Sierra Leone E
5 Burundi E
6 Guinea E
7 Rwanda E
8 The Gambia E
9 Chad E
10 Nigeria E
33 Iraq H
58 India H
84 Iran H
102 Brazil M
109 China M
126 Russia L
128 Italy L
151 Germany L
152 US L
153 Ireland L
154 France L
155 UK L
156 Australia L
157 Luxembourg L
158 Iceland L
159 Switzerland L
160 Sweden L
161 Austria L
162 New Zealand L
163 Canada L
164 Japan L
165 Finland L
166 Norway L