Climate change pact 'remains in the balance', says Ed Miliband

Damian Carrington
The Guardian, Tuesday 20 October 2009
A global treaty to fight climate change is hanging "in the balance", Ed Miliband, the energy and climate change secretary, said last night, although there were signs that developed countries were preparing to roll back on their demand that developing countries agree to long-term cuts in emissions.
At the end of a two-day meeting in London of those countries responsible for 80% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, Miliband said: "There is a universal view that we need to get an agreement, but not at any price. It is not a done deal and remains in the balance in my view."
While Miliband felt some progress had been made in London, there was an uncompromising assessment from Barack Obama's climate envoy, Todd Stern, who spoke of "robust" discussion.
He said any agreement would be constructed from commitments made by individual countries, not a global target, and that developing economies, such as China and India, would have to "stand behind" the commitments they made.
Stern hinted at the softening stance highlighting that at the G8 in July the view was that there ought to be "both a developed country number and a worldwide number – 80% for developed countries, 50% worldwide. But he added: "I don't know whether that is going to be included or not."
Dropping the 2050 demand will make it easier to strike a deal in Copenhagen, as it will switch attention to how countries manage emissions in the next decade.
The comments, at the close of the Major Economies Forum, revealed the depths of the disagreements facing negotiators with less than 50 days to go before the final UN summit in Copenhagen in December.
Developing nations want the promise of deeper cuts in emissions from industrialised nations, which are the largest polluters per person. In return, the rich nations are demanding firm promises of action to curb emissions growth in the developing world. The scale and nature of financial help for developing countries is also an impasse. "This is an 'I will if you will' situation'," said Miliband.
Stern was adamant the proposed emissions cuts in legislation currently in the US Senate – 20% below 2005 levels by 2020 – represented a serious reduction. "Those are strong numbers, representing a seismic shift in the US," he said. The offer has been regarded as weak compared to those from other rich nations.
Stern, while acknowledging the US's giant emissions, also bluntly stated that voluntary targets for fast developing countries like China and India were not acceptable. Those nations have fiercely resisted the idea of legally binding curbs on their emissions, arguing that the west grew rich on fossil fuels and should allow poorer nations to develop as they did.
But Stern said: "What we can't have is differences in how countries stand behind the deal." He quoted an International Energy Agency report predicting that 97% of the growth in emissions by 2020 will occur in developing countries.
He refused to be drawn on whether Obama would join Gordon Brown in attending Copenhagen. Miliband said there was a "universal understanding that leaders had to be involved in the next 50 days."
Stern also made a virtue of creating a deal from the pledges of individual nations, rather than aiming for a global target that would deliver the specific cuts scientists say are needed to avoid catastrophic climate change. Domestic legislation could be more strongly enforced than international treaties, he said. Several nations, such as Canada, have far exceeded their Kyoto protocol targets, with little prospect of a meaningful penalty.
Miliband held out the hope of movement in the weeks ahead. "I have the sense the Chinese government will have more to say on [carbon targets] before Copenhagen." To date, China has only promised "notable" curbs.
The 17 major economies that form the MEF are Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the EU, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, the UK, and United States.