Barcelona diary: Russia keeps everyone in dark and Pershing scores direct hit

Russia tries to hang on to its carbon credits, UK wins a fossil booby prize and US negotiator charms the Indians
John Vidal
guardian.co.uk, Friday 6 November 2009 11.53 GMT
Russia's credit riches
Russia is such a dark horse at these talks that you would barely know it was here, let alone it was the world's third largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Not only does the country give no briefings or make any public appearances, it has steadfastly refused to divulge its position. What it is clearly trying to do in secret negotiations, though, is hang on to its 4-6billion "assigned amount units" (AAUs) — effectively credits to emit billions of tonnes of carbon. These go back to the early 1990s before Russia's economy crashed, but they are still valid and if Russia is allowed to carry them over into another Kyoto round, it will be able to go for years without having to even think about reducing emissions. Indeed, when other countries' AAUs are included, there exists the real possibility that the rich world could effectively sign up to a deal that only forces it to cut emissions by 6% on 1990 figures. That's a 1% increase on cuts agreed at Kyoto 1997. That's progress.
New shoots for forest plan
Yesterday we berated the EU for not putting language that protected natural forests back into the proposed final text. This provoked an immediate response: in a new "open non-paper" (no 39) we find the key words restored but with some major differences. Not only has the protection been watered down, but a country that must remain nameless (OK, it's the US) has put brackets round some of it. That effectively means that forest protection is still open to negotiation. Someone out there really wants plantation palm oil forests to be seen as the same as old growth forests.
Gushing and Pershing
It's just a straw in the wind, but sometimes the body language of negotiators says it all. Jonathan Pershing, the US chief negotiator, was spotted this morning being greeted by a clearly overjoyed Indian delegation. "We have just had a meeting with your team. It went very well indeed," said the Indians. Pershing was also effusive. Does this mean the Indians and the US have stitched up a deal? Who knows, but whispers from inside the talks suggest that it is moving to distance itself from the G77, the political grouping of poor countries which it traditionally sits with, and wants to sit at the rich man's table.
US and UK land fossils booby prize
At the end of every negotiating day, the massed ranks of the non-government groups award "fossils" to the country they think has done the most to set the talks back. Yesterday the US and Britain were joint winners of the prestigious but dishonourable award for their statements that a legally binding agreement could be delayed by very many months.