Copenhagen conference: The countries to watch

America and China are the big hitters, but other nations also punch above their weight

David Adam and James Randerson
The Guardian, Monday 30 November 2009
United States
Influence rating ★★★★★
With China, one of the two big powers that can make or break these talks. But with Obama's energy bill stalled in the Senate, US negotiators don't know what they can offer – like bidding on a house before the bank manager has told them what they can afford.
Friends and foes Good backing from the EU, but perceived with suspicion by much of the developing world.
What they're offering Obama's keeping his cards close to his chest, but a grudging 14-20% cut in carbon emissions (2005 levels) by 2020 looks likely.
What they most want A deal that's neither too expensive nor puts any curbs on economic growth. Call it the Pollyanna approach.
Least likely to say "Heck, we caused most of this mess – this round's on us."
China
★★★★★
UK officials have long been describing the Kyoto treaty's successor simply as a deal (or lack of one) between China and the US. China overtook America as the biggest emitter in 2006, but has said it might sign a "political deal" at Copenhagen if rich countries make big cuts.
Friends and foes Has made common cause with India and other developing nations in the face of much pressure from those patronising rich countries.
What they're offering A 40- 45% decrease in the "carbon intensity of the economy" – which actually equates to a 40% increase in emissions by 2020.
What they most want A deal that entails big financial support from developed nations to fund clean technologies and adaptation to climate change.
Least likely to say "Look, we're No 1!"
European Union
★★★★
With a lack of commitments from the "big two", Europe likes to portray itself as the most progressive force at the talks – a position flattered by the collapse of Soviet economies in the 90s.
Friends and foes Has given the US an easy ride in the hope of getting a deal.
What they're offering €100bn per year from rich countries by 2020 to fund climate adaptation, and 95% cuts in its carbon emissions by 2050 (based on 1990 levels) if there's a global deal. But that only means a 10% reduction to 2020. Like a luxury hybrid car, the EU is trying to look greener than it really is.
What they most want A substantial deal that sees major developing countries taking on some of the pain.
Least likely to say "We agree with China, the US hasn't gone far enough."
Japan
Influence rating ★★★★
New PM Yukio Hatoyama gave a boost to September's pre-Copenhagen talks by massively upping the cuts in emissions he promises to make if there is a deal. With the EU, Japan now has the best offer of any developed country.
Friends and foes Plenty of mutual back-slapping with the US last month over their shared new clean-tech plans.
What they're offering A 25% cut on their 1990 emission levels by 2020 – much better than the 8% cut unveiled by the previous government in June. Lime-green, if not quite deep green.
What they most want To be seen as a climate leader, steering the rest of the bickering rabble (sorry, eminent gathering) to a substantive deal.
Least likely to say "Listen, no one ever took Kyoto seriously anyway."
Russia
★★★
With a bank of lucrative carbon credits, emissions way below 1990 levels (due to the collapse of the USSR) and an expanding network of gas pipelines, Russia has used climate and energy to clamber back up the international pecking order. Traditionally, it likes to use these UN meetings to grandstand. More will listen this time.
Friends and foes The two-headed eagle still looks west and east, and sells gas to both of them.
What they're offering A 25% cut on 1990 levels by 2020, if others do the same.
What they most want To be feared and respected again. Warmer winters wouldn't go amiss, though.
Least likely to say "Of course we understand your domestic constraints, Mr Obama. Have some gas on us."
UK Influence rating ★★★
Britain talks the talk on climate change and, believe it or not, Tony Blair is widely admired for his efforts to push the issue on to the international stage. Lord Stern's famous report carries clout, too – but the UK's influence seems sure to wane as foreign players with big plans/wallets muscle in on the party.
Friends and foes Britain negotiates as part of the European bloc, which means regular scraps with France and Germany over targets and finance.
What they're offering At home, a very ambitious 80% cut in emissions by 2050.
What they most want One last, desperate opportunity for Gordon Brown to smile triumphantly at the cameras.
Least likely to say "The sums don't add up and it sets a shocking example, so let's can the new Heathrow runway."
Brazil
★★★
One of the largest emitters in the developing world (mostly from its forestry). And yet hydropower-heavy, biofuelled-up Brazil is ahead of most when it comes to renewable energy. Long-nagged to do more to save its Amazon rainforest, climate change now offers a sizeable extra incentive.
Friends and foes This figurehead of developing nations seems to have patched up differences with other tropical nations about outsiders buying into their forests.
What they're offering Rainforest trees left standing, and a healthy 36-39% reduction on expected 2020 emissions.
What they most want Cash for those trees to be left standing.
Least likely to say "Bioethanol? Don't like the sound of that, guv."
India
★★★
Too often bundled with China in climate discussions, India has a determined mind of its own. Its massive coal stocks offer a huge opportunity to lift millions more out of poverty – but such guilty, ungreen impulses are tempered by knowledge that New Delhi is on the frontline of rising sea levels.
Friends and foes A solid member of the G77 group of developing nations, its reaction to any suggestion that China get special treatment will be interesting.
What they're offering A tough line on rich countries' responsibilities, and support for schemes that allow for voluntary carbon reductions.
What they most want Development, but perhaps not at any (climate) cost.
Most likely to say "Those Himalayan glaciers look fine to us."
Canada
★★★
In stark contrast to its cuddly international image, Canada is the dirty old man of the climate world – missing its Kyoto emissions reduction target by a country mile (by 2007, it was 34% above its target) and showing no signs of reigning in its profligacy.
Friends and foes Roundly criticised by developing countries for being way off the pace, now there are calls to suspend it from the Commonwealth.
What they're offering A pathetic 3% cut on their 1990 emissions levels by 2020 – an offer mired in thick black tar.
What they most want No curbs on its ability to mine those lucrative tar sands in Alberta for oil (a far more carbon-intensive process than regular extraction).
Least likely to say "Look, when you set a target, you've got to stick to it, OK?"
Australia
★★★
The easy ride it has so far enjoyed over carbon emissions makes a tricycle with stabilisers look difficult to master. Australia has one of the highest per capita emissions levels in the world, yet its deal at Kyoto allowed it to increase total levels by 8%.
Friends and foes Quick to welcome Obama's emissions pledge last week, and invited to be a "friend of the chair" by hosts Denmark. The creeps.
What they're offering A fence-sitting 5%-25% cuts (that upper-end target comes with lots of strings attached).
What they most want PM Kevin Rudd wants Australia to break with the past and be seen as a climate leader.
Least likely to say "Mate, did you know we chuck out more carbon per person than the US?"
Norway
Influence rating ★★★
With its carbon tax, pioneering efforts to protect tropical forests, and some of the most ambitious emissions targets in the world, Norway appears streets ahead of most other countries. However, rich on the vast profits from its offshore gas, it remains a key player in the fossil fuel industry.
Friends and foes An often critical friend of the EU – and a generous friend of most other nations.
What they're offering A whopping 40% cut on their 1990 carbon emission levels by 2020, although much of that will be offset abroad.
What they most want A triumph for Scandinavia that entails more than Denmark just holding a tidy summit.
Most likely to say "Never mind the whaling, feel the carbon targets."
Mexico
★★
Waiting in the wings to steal the glory if a Copenhagen deal does not materialise, Mexico is due to host the next round of negotiations in 2010. Has made all the right noises about carbon cuts, but could do with some dosh to make it happen.
Friends and foes Remember the Alamo! Mexico called its old foe the US a "stumbling block" in the negotiations last month. Imagine what they called them in private.
What they're offering A very precise 50m tonnes knocked off their annual CO2 emissions by 2012.
What they most want Put it this way: a carbon-constrained US could tip the trade balance of the Americas.
Most likely to say "The Cancún protocol has a nice ring to it, yes?"
South Africa
★★
Ranks a surprisingly high 14th in the world for carbon emissions, thanks to a high reliance on all that coal in its backyard for both electricity and liquid fuels. One of the most carbon-intensive economies in the world, with per capita emissions slightly higher than the UK's (which isn't saying a lot).
Friends and foes A leading light in the African Union that represents 52 countries, most of whom may struggle to get their voices heard in Copenhagen.
What they're offering Not a lot. Despite doing a study of mitigation options, no decisions are planned until 2012.
What they most want Likely to be hit hard by climate change, you'd think a deal would be very welcome.
Least likely to say "Coal is a dirty word – there's got to be a better way."
Maldives
★
Talk about punching above your weight. Thanks in no small part to the colourful and PR-savvy president Mohamed Nasheed, the Maldives have become a key voice for soon-to-be climate victims around the world. The island nation is the Vince Cable of the talks – no real power but solidly on the moral high ground (if not the literal high ground).
Friends and foes A member of the G77 group of developing nations, and pals with anyone wanting some good PR.
What they're offering To go totally carbon neutral by 2020. A frog with solar panels would look less green.
What do they most want Large cuts by all the developed nations.
Most likely to say "I bet you've never had a cabinet meeting under water."
Saudi Arabia
★
Perennial pantomime villains at UN climate talks, the Saudis are the world's top oil producers and – perhaps not that surprisingly – no fans of curbs on emissions. Regular protests from their delegation are prone to trigger selective deafness in other negotiators and conference chairs, who gavel through decisions anyway.
Friends and foes Along with other oil-loving Opec countries (not all bosom buddies, mind), they are pushing for compensation for lost oil revenue.
What they're offering Ten million barrels a day of black (but definitely not green) gold.
What they most want The world's climate scientists, a desert and no water.
Most likely to say "That Don Quixote was spot on: never trust a windmill."
Ethiopia
★
Crippled by drought and poverty, Ethiopia is likely to be one of the countries most affected by global warming, having done hardly anything to cause the problem, of course.
Friends and foes Understandably, given the above, the African group of nations has grown more militant over recent years in its discussions about climate change.
What they're offering The problem is, they haven't got anything substantial enough to offer in negotiations to be taken seriously by better-endowed nations…
What they most want …so all they can do is make optimistic demands: $67bn a year in aid for adaptation, and a 40% cut in rich countries' emissions.
Most likely to say "Help!"