Copenhagen conference: Fears China may downgrade emissions target

Recent reports about China's likely target have generated fears that a climate deal could be hindered by cautious initial bid
Jonathan Watts, Asia environment correspondent
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 25 November 2009 11.35 GMT
Europe and the US are concerned that China may soon set a carbon target that marks a step back from its current efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
With two weeks remaining until the Copenhagen climate talks, negotiators from developed nations were hoping the world's biggest emitter would unveil a sufficiently progressive goal to increase momentum in the US and developing nations.
But recent reports and recommendations about China's likely target have generated fears that a climate deal could be hampered by an overly cautious initial bid.
The government in Beijing has yet to announce a goal. The closest it has come was at the UN summit in September, when the president, Hu Jintao, promised to reduce the carbon intensity of China's economy by a "notable margin" between 2005 and 2020. Carbon intensity is the amount of emissions produced per dollar of economic activity.
Brazil, Indonesia and South Korea have recently put hard figures on the negotiating table. Speculation is mounting that China could do the same soon either this Friday, or at a summit with the EU on 30 November in Nanjing, which would then pave the way for Barack Obama to announce US targets soon after.
A successful domino effect would require a strong enough commitment by Beijing to convince wavering US senators that China was moving significantly beyond business as usual.
But most recent reports have suggested that China is considering a reduction in carbon relative to economic growth in the lower end of the range 40-50% between 2005 and 2020. This would mean investing more in solar, wind, nuclear and other low-carbon energy sources, as well as improving the efficiency of the coal-fired plants that provide most of China's electricity.
Sources at the Energy Research Institute, a government thinktank, have told the Guardian that they recommended a carbon intensity goal of 40-44%. "I expect there will be an announcement soon," said the source. "But there is big uncertainty about the figure. The top range we proposed was 44%, but this depends on a high GDP growth rate. The government may trim this down if it thinks growth will be slower."
Other proposed targets offer slightly more scope. Earlier this month, state media noted a senior government advisory body - the China Council of International Cooperation on Environment, made up of international experts - was recommending a target of 4-5% reductions a year until 2050.
Even if confirmed, these numbers are likely to represent only as an opening bid by China. Counterparts in developed nations say they fall short of the level that might spur other nations into action.
"Some of the numbers being banded around seem worryingly low given China's weight of economic growth but we remain confident that China will ultimately offer us an emissions reduction target that represents a significant reduction from business as usual," said a European diplomat.
The concern is that these goals do not represent much progress on the 1990-2005 period.
"Only really when it gets to be more than 50% then it starts to represent more hope than we have seen historically," noted the diplomat. US negotiators believe 40 per cent would be merely business as usual.
Yu Qingtai, China's special representative at climate talks, would not be drawn today on when a figure would be announced or how high it would be, but he said even the current energy efficiency drive had produced gains equivalent to 1.5bn tonnes of carbon dioxide.
He accused rich nations, which have greater historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions, of bad faith in asking China to do more even though they had failed to deliver on the promises made at Kyoto.
"If we cannot do what we have pledged to do yet make more promises then I don't think we will see a bright future. Our expectation for Copenhagen is to do a good job in what we have already pledged to do."
Such claims and counter-claims are likely to intensify as the Copenhagen summit draws closer. Wu Changhua, China director of the Climate Group, said a 40% reduction in carbon intensity by 2020 would be a "huge commitment." Other analysts believe an annual target above 4.8%, equivalent to just over 50% over 15 years, would mark significant progress.
Li Yan of Greenpeace said all countries needed to be more ambitious. "It's fairly sure the government has a figure in its back pocket. Whether they announce it will depend on negotiations. It will also depend on whether other developing countries, like Brazil and India, are also ready to take their fair share of combating climate change."
Reports that the US would soon set a figure were welcomed by Chinese negotiators, but they said optimism was tempered by the problems of passing climate change legislation in Congress.
"I think the US have showed a positive posture," said the negotiator, who asked to remain annoymous. "But the point is what will the target be? They won't be able to announce a goal that exceeds that of the House of Representatives or it wouldn't be legal." The negotiator declined to mention when China might clarify its position.
More nations' negotiating positions are coming out into the open. Norway has led the way by promising a 40% cut of carbon emissions from 1990 levels by 2020. The UK has pledged 34%. Japan impressively raised its commitment from 8% to 25%.
Developing countries are not legally obliged to reduce greenhouse gases, but several have recently stepped up with progressive targets, including Brazil, which aims to move 38% to 42% away from business as usual; Indonesia, which said it will reduce 26% from business as usual by 2020, or even more if it receives financial and technical assistants; and South Korea, which has set a target range of 21-30%.
More surprises may be in store. As well as a carbon intensity target, China could set a date when it expects its emissions to peak and increase its target for renewable energy.
"If it does that it would be very encouraging. For a developing country like China that would be leadership," said Wu of the Climate Group. "In China, if the president says it we know it will be done. In the US, it does not necessarily mean action."