No excuse for muddled thinking which could lead to energy shortfalls

John Westwood

Peak UK electricity demand could exceed available capacity as early as 2017 owing to the planned closure of current nuclear and coal power stations and a short-term lack of replacement options.
Much of this capacity will have to be met by gas-powered plants — running on imported fuel — until the next generation of power stations and renewable energy options can be brought online.
We predict that over the period 2010 to 2017 more than 50 per cent of all capacity additions will have to come from gas-power plants, while a further 44 per cent will come from wind power.
The prospect of reliance on foreign gas to produce our electricity until new capacity is added to the national grid is obviously worrying the Government and is undoubtedly the driving factor behind today’s announcement.

However, successive governments have had 30 years’ notice of the present serious decline of UK oil and gas supplies and full knowledge of generation plant lifetimes.
There is really no excuse, therefore, for reaching the situation we are in today where the lights could literally go out in less than a decade.
Although time is of the essence, the Government has done itself no favours by trying to rush though measures without proper explanation to the general public or a full debate before the house.
Once again, it gives the impression, whether accurately or not, that there is no joined-up energy policy in the UK. This may make the public, as well as the international energy industry, rather nervous.
We’ve no doubt that, in the longer-term the decommissioned capacity will ultimately be replaced largely by new nuclear plants and wind power and some clean coal power.
However, given much of the sensitivity and innate public scepticism surrounding nuclear power, today’s approach may seem to some as heavy-handed.
Worse still, it could create further confusion about Government energy policy and, far from stimulating investment and new-builds, may actually delay the process of investment and widen the energy capacity gap.
This could, in turn, force further reliance on gas powered stations and raise significant questions about the country’s energy security.
As such, the UK power generation sector is at a critical crossroads and what’s called for today is a clear and consistent message to the energy market, its supply chain and the general public.
The Government needs a high-level private sector investment to meet capacity demands. Our research suggests the required levels of capital investment needed to meet demand increases could be as high as £162 billion between 2010 and 2030.
The money is available but only if the Government makes its energy policies clear to the industry so that investments are made in time to meet potential shortfalls and balance the need to enhance energy security, maintain public support and adhere to international environmental targets.
John Westwood is chairman of Douglas Westwood, the energy consultant