UK must transform to meet future energy needs, warn top engineers

The changes include a transformation of draughty homes, plus vast expansion of renewable and nuclear power

Damian Carrington
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 18 March 2010 07.00 GMT
The UK's most eminent engineers have warned that the biggest set of investments and social changes ever seen in peacetime are needed to meet the country's energy needs in the coming decades, while cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
The changes include a transformation of the nation's draughty homes and cuts in how far people commute to work, as well as a vast expansion of wind and solar power and dozens of new nuclear or "clean coal" power plants.
The authors of the Royal Academy of Engineering report, published today , say the existing level of political will and the market-led approach to energy planning cannot deliver the fundamental restructuring needed.
"We are nowhere near having a plan," said Prof Sue Ion, who led the report. "These are massive projects. It requires a huge exercise all through government, and needs to come from the very top and go down through all departments such as transport and local government."
"What we are talking about is making sure our children and grandchildren have an energy infrastructure that is fit for purpose."
Another author, Prof Roger Kemp, from Lancaster University, said: "It needs the political enthusiasm that was behind the war on terror after 9/11."
The team devised scenarios for the UK in 2050, starting with achievable cuts in energy usage and the maximum possible amount of renewable energy. Next they calculated how much fossil fuel could then be used while still meeting the UK's planned action on climate change, an 80% cut in carbon emissions by 2050. In all scenarios, that left an energy gap that was filled by dozens of new nuclear power stations and coal stations fitted with technology to prevent carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere.
In the two scenarios identified by the engineers as most probable, fossil fuel use fell by 75%, renewable energy rose 20-fold and about 40 new nuclear or clean coal plants were needed (see details below). The remaining fossil fuel has to be split between heating homes or powering transport, with social consequences for both.
If home heating is to be decarbonised by the use of electric heat pumps, said the authors, gas boilers would have to be all but banned and community heating schemes built. If cars are to be electrified, then a vast new charging infrastructure is needed, said Kemp, including a smart, interactive grid that charges vehicles when renewable energy from wind and the sun is most available.
Kemp suggested the long commutes to work common today could not continue: "We have to think about constraints on where we live. Car mileage has been going up since 1950s and shows no sign of slowing." But he said: "One of the problems of transport is that it is a very emotional issue."
A critical factor was cutting demand for energy, said the author Prof Roland Clift, from the University of Surrey, primarily by increasing the energy efficiency of homes. "The UK has notoriously inefficient buildings. We need to put huge effort into the unsexy business of retrofitting. It is a frustration to me that this was said 10 years ago, but very little has happened since."
The transformation needed is so substantial that they said it would "inevitably involve significant rises in energy costs to end users"' said Ion. But the report notes that the renewal of the UK's energy infrastructure, mostly built in the 1970s, is required regardless of the need to cut emissions to tackle global warming.
Prof Nick Cumsty used another war analogy: "It's like going to war with Hitler: it is not what it costs but what you have to do or you will be overwhelmed." In October, the government's adviser, the Committee on Climate Change, said a "step change" was needed in the rate of carbon emissions cuts.
A spokesman for the Department of Energy and Climate Change said: "Large parts of the report are very much in tune with our thinking." Last month, the energy secretary, Ed Miliband, said in a statement: "For the longer term [beyond 2020], Britain will need a more interventionist energy policy. The scale and upfront nature of the low-carbon investment needed is likely to require significant reform of our market arrangements."
John Sauven, executive director of Greenpeace UK, said: "The government has been too slow and too hesitant in the past, but next week's budget offers them a chance to fire the starting gun for a low-carbon economy. Britain has faced up to massive challenges before and has emerged stronger and more prosperous because of them. The decades ahead will improve our energy security and generate thousands of new jobs."
What the UK needs in 2050 to keep the lights on and fight global warming
Renewable energy:
• More than 20,000 wind turbines, on and off onshore
• 36m² of solar panels on each house, or equivalent
• 1,000 miles of Pelamis "sea-snake" wave power machines
• A tidal power barrage across the Severn and 2,300 tidal turbines elsewhere
• The burning of farm, forest and food waste for electricity, and transport biofuels, equivalent to 26 large coal-powered stations
Low-carbon energy:
• About 40 new power stations using either nuclear or "clean coal" technology
Fossil fuels:
• Use cut by 75% compared with today and used largely for transport or home heating, but not both
Energy efficiency
• 20% cut in energy use by white goods and gadgets, and a 40% cut in home heating