We need an expensive miracle

Any notion that renewables can provide for all our requirements is a mischievous and reckless boast that will leave us in the dark, says Ian Fells

Professor Ian Fells
The Guardian,
Thursday September 18 2008

Two imperatives point to the urgent development of renewable energy: security of supply and controlling climate change.
Much the largest source of renewable energy is hydroelectric power, which provides 17% of world electricity (and 6% of world energy), about the same as nuclear power; both are CO2-free. All the other renewables - wind, wave, tidal, solar, biomass (which are either CO2-free or CO-neutral) - hardly feature in the statistics at the present time.
In a desperate attempt to reduce dependence on the twin energy drugs of oil and gas, huge efforts are being made worldwide to develop renewable sources of energy, and the EU is committed to reaching a target of 20% renewable energy by 2020, which implies 35% to 40% renewable electricity.
The UK is third from the bottom in the EU league table, just above Luxembourg and Malta, at 1.3% (the UK's 2020 target is 15%). Sweden gets a remarkable 40% of its energy from renewables.
This form of energy is frequently invoked by the green lobby as being the only way ahead for electricity supply, providing all that we need. This must be a case of "Omne ignotum pro magnifico est" ("That which is unknown is assumed to have great potential", to quote Tacitus).
But engineers do know a great deal about renewable energy: first and foremost, it is expensive, and is only being developed commercially because of the provision of subsidies of various kinds. This amounted to £1bn last year and will gross up to more than 20 times this figure by 2020, according to the UK's Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform. But this is currently seen as a necessary and acceptable cost for peace of mind in the fight to contain climate change, although the size of the subsidy is not always appreciated.
A recent report by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors suggested that the payback time for solar panels is more than 100 years. Of course, as technologies mature and production gets under way, costs come down - but not always low enough to compete with hydro and nuclear. But they play a vital role in providing a source of CO2-free energy as part of the climate control portfolio of technologies.
Solar energy is ubiquitous and gaining ground in niche markets but is also beginning to penetrate the bulk electricity market. High feed-in tariffs have allowed Germany to achieve its target of getting 100,000 roofs with solar panels generating 300 MW, a project that started in 1999 and finished in 2003.
Wind power onshore has been successful because of marketing subsidies (the Renawables Obligation Certificates, which power generators pay to renewables operators); but even after 15 years it only provides the equivalent output of half a typical gas or nuclear station. The potential for more growth offshore is high; indeed, the government is relying on it, but someone will have to pay to hook the wind farms up to the grid. Wave and tidal stream systems are in their infancy but growing.
The only large-scale supplier of renewable electricity would be the Severn Barrage, which is based on the proven technology demonstrated at the Rance barrage in Brittany, which has operated successfully for 40 years. It could provide 5% of UK electricity at a capital cost of £1.7m per installed MW - about half of the cost of offshore wind farms.
If a low-cost technology for storing renewable electricity could be found, it would solve the problems of intermittent wind and lack of night-time solar. A great deal of ingenuity is being brought to bear to increase renewable energy production and it is being steadily successful. But if we are to get to 15% renewable energy by 2020 it will be an expensive miracle. Any notion that renewables can provide for all our requirements is a mischievous and reckless boast that will leave us in the dark.
· Ian Fells is emeritus professor of energy conversion at Newcastle University and founding chairman of the New and Renewable Energy Centre (NaREC) at Blyth, Northumberland. He is co-author of A Pragmatic Energy Policy: A route map to energy survival for the UK.