The Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation on Food Production in Low-Income Countries

Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia


Mahmud Yesuf, Salvatore Di Falco, Temesgen Deressa, Claudia Ringler, and Gunnar Kohlin


Growing consensus in the scientific community indicates that
higher temperatures and changing precipitation levels
resulting from climate change will depress crop yields in many
countries over the coming decades. This is particularly true in
low-income countries, where adaptive capacity is low. Many
African countries are particularly vulnerable to climate change
because their economies largely depend on climate-sensitive
agricultural production. This brief is based on a study that used
household survey data to analyze the impact of climate change on
food production in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. The study also
examined the factors influencing adaptation and the implications
of various adaptation strategies for farm productivity.
Cli mat e Change and Agric ult ural
Producti on in Et hiopia
With a population of more than 70 million people and a gross
domestic product (GDP) of slightly more than US$10 billion,
Ethiopia is one of the world’s least developed countries. The
agricultural sector, which is dominated by small-scale, subsistence
farming, forms the foundation of the national economy and
constitutes the primary source of livelihood for the overwhelming
majority of the population. In 2003, the sector employed more than
80 percent of the labor force and contributed 45 percent of GDP and
85 percent of total export revenues. Ethiopian agriculture is almost
exclusively dependent on rainfall, given that irrigated agriculture
accounts for less than 1 percent of the country’s total cultivated land.
Thus, the amount and temporal distribution of rainfall and other
climatic factors are key determinants of crop yields, and poor or
excessive rainfall can induce food shortages and famine.
A recent mapping of vulnerability and poverty in Africa
determined that, in terms of climate change, Ethiopia was one of
the most vulnerable countries given its low adaptive capacity.
Rainfall variability and associated drought have been major causes
of the country’s food shortages and famine. Nationally, the link
between drought and crop production is widely recognized, but
little is known about how climate change affects crop yields and
what strategies households are using to adapt. Furthermore, few
studies have analyzed the factors governing farmers’ decisions to

adapt to climate change and the impact of those decisions on
yields. This information is particularly important for the design of
effective adaptation strategies for coping with the negative impacts
of climate change.
Cli mat e Change and Adaptati on
in the Nil e Basin of Et hiopia
The survey underlying the study on which this brief is based was
designed to capture farmers’ perceptions and understanding of
climate change, as well as their approaches to adaptation. Data
show that 68 percent of farmers perceived that mean temperatures
had increased over the previous 20 years, whereas 4 percent
perceived they had decreased, and 28 percent perceived that there
had been no change. In terms of mean annual rainfall over the
same timeframe, 62 percent of farmers reported a decrease,
18 percent reported an increase, and 20 percent reported no
change. Overall, increased temperature and declining precipitation
were the predominant perceptions in the study sites.
In response to perceived long-term changes, farm households
implemented a number of adaptation measures, including
changing crop varieties, adopting soil and water conservation
measures, harvesting water, planting trees, and changing planting
and harvesting periods. The remaining adaptation measures,
which accounted for less than 5 percent of all measures, were
nonyield related and included migration and a shift in farming
practices from crop production to livestock herding or other
sectors. However, about 58 percent of farmers took no action to
adapt to long-term shifts in temperatures, and 42 percent took no
action to respond to long-term shifts in precipitation. More than
90 percent of those respondents who took no action to adapt cited
lack of information and shortages of labor, land, and money as the
major reasons. In fact, lack of information was the predominant
reason cited by 40–50 percent of households.
Determinants of Adaptati on
Results suggest that information about future changes in climate
and access to formal and informal institutions strongly govern
household decisions about adaptation. Households with access to

formal agricultural extension, farmer-to-farmer extension, credit,
and information about future climate change are more likely to
adjust their farming practices in response to climate change.
Likewise, households in areas that experienced higher rainfall
than average in the Belg (fall) season were also more likely to
adopt adaptation strategies compared with households in areas
receiving less rainfall. Nevertheless, households with higher than
average rainfall during the key Mehere (summer) rainfall season
were not more likely to adapt to climate change.
Significant differences were also observed across the country’s
various agroecological zones when it came to the likelihood that
households would undertake measures to adapt to climate change:
households in the highlands (Dega) and midlands (WeynaDega)
were less likely to adopt adaptation measures compared with
households in the lowlands (Kolla). Significant differences in
responses were also observed based on household size and age and
literacy levels of household heads. Larger households and those
whose heads were older and more literate were more likely to adopt
adaptation measures, indicating the importance of available labor on
the one hand and experience and access to information on the other.
The Impact of Cli mat e Change
and Adaptati on on Food Producti on
Although the survey returned information on a total of 48 annual
crops grown in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia, the first 5 major annual
crops (teff, maize, wheat, barley, and beans) cover 65 percent of
plots. The estimation of the production function that follows is
limited to these crops.
Results show that farmers who adopted measures to adapt to
climate change had higher levels of food production than those
who did not: households that adopted adaptation measures tended
to produce about 95–300 kilograms more food per hectare than
those who chose not to adapt, which accounts for a 10–29 percent
difference in output. In other words, adaptation measures
substantially mitigated the effect of climate change on crop yields.
Farm-level climatic variation is a significant factor in
explaining fluctuations in food production across farm households.
Variations in household yield levels could not be explained
by temperature. Variations in precipitation during the Mehere
season did explain yield differences, although the effects of such
differences were nonlinear. An increase in both Belg and Mehere

rainfall seemed to increase food production (controlling for
agroecological and other major factors of production), but too
much or too little rainfall during these seasons appeared to have a
negative effect on food production in the study sites.
As expected, the use of improved seeds, fertilizers, manure,
and additional labor tended to increase food production.
Significant differences in yields were also observed across agroecological
zones, with the highlands (Dega) producing the most food
per hectare, followed by the lowlands (Kolla), and finally the
midlands (WeynaDega).
Concl uding Remarks
The above results indicate that farmers’ decisions to adopt
yield-enhancing adaptation strategies are influenced by informal
and formal institutional support, the availability of information on
future climate changes, the amount of rainfall during the Belg
season, and the agroecological setting, as well as householdspecific
characteristics of size and age and literacy levels of the
household head. This suggests that farmers need appropriate and
timely information on predicted changes in climate to empower
them to take appropriate steps to adjust their farming practices.
Moreover, given that access to credit markets and government and
farmer-to-farmer extension services was shown to facilitate
adaptation, more effort should be made to extend these services to
farmers in poor communities.
Averting the negative effects of climate change and achieving
food security have become major priorities for development
agencies, policymakers, and related stakeholders. Given that
adaptation measures have a positive effect on crop yields, the
adoption of yield-related adaptation strategies could significantly
support these goals. Consequently, adaptation not only enables
farmers to cope with the adverse effects of climate change and
variability, but also increases the agricultural productivity of poor
farm households.
for further RE ADING
Yesuf, M., S. Di Falco, T. Deressa, C. Ringler, and G. Kohlin, The Impact
of Climate Change and Adaptation on Food Production in
Low-Income Countries: Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia,
IFPRI Discussion Paper No. 828 (Washington, DC: International
Food Policy Research Institute, 2008).


M. Yesuf (mahmudyesuf@yahoo.com) is a fellow at the Ethiopian Development Research Institute and Addis Ababa University. S. Di Falco (s.difalco@uea.ac.uk) is a lecturer
in Applied Economics at the University of Kent, U.K. T. Deressa (ttderessa@yahoo.com) is a PhD student at the Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa
(CEEPA) at the University of Pretoria, South Africa. C. Ringler (c.ringler@cgiar.org) is a senior research fellow in the Environment and Production Technology Division of the
International Food Policy Research Institute. G. Kohlin (gunnar.kohlin@economics.gu.se) is an associate professor in Economics at Gothenburg University, Sweden.
This series of IFPRI Research Briefs is based on research supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany, under the
project “Food and Water Security under Global Change: Developing Adaptive Capacity with a Focus on Rural Africa,” which forms part of the CGIAR
Challenge Program on Water and Food. Through collaboration with the Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, the Ethiopian Development
Research Institute, the Ethiopian Economics Association, and the University of Hamburg, the project aims to provide policymakers and stakeholders in
Ethiopia and South Africa with tools to better understand and analyze the consequences of global change—in particular climate change—and to form policy
decisions that facilitate adaptation in these countries and beyond.


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acknowledgment to IFPRI. Contact ifpri-copyright@cgiar.org for permission to reprint.