Understanding Farmers’ Perceptions and Adaptations to Climate Change and Variability

The Case of the Limpopo Basin, South Africa

Glwadys Aymone Gbetibouo


Climate change is expected to have serious environmental,
economic, and social impacts on South Africa. In particular,
rural farmers, whose livelihoods depend on the use of natural
resources, are likely to bear the brunt of adverse impacts. The extent
to which these impacts are felt depends in large part on the extent of
adaptation in response to climate change. Adaptation is widely
recognized as a vital component of any policy response to climate
change. Without adaptation, climate change would be detrimental
to the agricultural sector, but with adaptation, vulnerability can be
significantly reduced.
This brief is based on a study that examines farmers’ perceptions
of climate change and analyzes their adaptation responses to
climate change and variability using household survey data from the
Limpopo River Basin in South Africa.
Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change
Farmers’ ability to perceive climate change is a key precondition for
their choice to adapt. The accuracy of farmers’ perceptions of
climate change was assessed by comparing their perceptions of
long-term changes in temperature and precipitation with climate
trends recorded at nearby meteorological stations. About 91 percent
of the farmers surveyed perceived an increase in temperature over
the past 20 years. This perception was confirmed by the statistical
record for the Limpopo River Basin between 1960 and 2003, which
showed the increase occurring mostly in the summer months
(October to March). An analysis of climate data at the provincial
level shows the same general trend of increasing temperature with
some minor variations in terms of the severity of the increase and its
timing (warming occurred mostly during the winter months in
Limpopo, Gauteng, and Mpumalanga). Thus, farmers’ perceptions
are supported by the statistical record.
In terms of precipitation, 81 percent of respondents reported a
decrease in rainfall over the past 20 years. Approximately 12 percent
of farmers reported a change in the timing of rains, and many of these
respondents observed a delayed and shorter rainfall season (summer).
The recorded rainfall data for 1960–2003 show that about
85 percent of rainfall occurs during summer months. However,
despite a majority perception that rainfall had decreased—and with
the exception of the winter season where the data do show a

decreasing trend—the climate record shows no statistically significant
trend over the past 40 years. Overall the climate record shows
large variability in the amount of precipitation from year to year, and
the same pattern was observed in each province. The high proportion
of farmers noticing a decrease in precipitation could be due to the
substantial decline in rainfall during 2001–03. Thus, farmer reports
of a reduction in rainfall over the past 20 years may indicate that
their perceptions are influenced by more recent climate trends.
A number of factors influence the likelihood that farmers will
perceive climate change. Having fertile soil and access to water for
irrigation decreases the likelihood that farmers will perceive climate
changes, whereas education, experience, and access to extension
services increase the likelihood that farmers will perceive climate
changes. This suggests that perceptions are not based entirely on
actual climate conditions and changes but are also influenced by
other factors.
Adaptation to Climate Change
Even though a large number of farmers interviewed noticed changes in
climate, almost two-thirds chose not to undertake any remedial action.
Among those farmers who did adapt, common responses included
planting different crops, changing crop varieties, changing planting
dates, increasing irrigation, diversifying crops, changing the amount of
land grazed or under cultivation, and supplementing livestock feed.
While adopting a new crop variety was the main strategy used to adapt
to increasing temperature, building water-harvesting schemes was a
popular strategy for coping with decreased precipitation.
Farmers cited a number of barriers to adaptation including
poverty, lack of access to credit, and lack of savings. Insecure
property rights and lack of markets were also cited as significant
barriers to adaptation. A few farmers also reported lack of information
and knowledge of appropriate adaptation measures as barriers
to adaptation (Table 1).
Results from mathematical models indicate that experienced
farmers are more likely to adapt to perceived climate change. In
particular, the likelihood of diversifying portfolios (that is, adopting
new crops or crop varieties, or using mixed farming systems),
changing planting dates, and changing the amount of land under
production increases with farm experience. This suggests that

farmers with greater management and technical skills are better able
to cope with climate variability and change, and to spread risk by
exploiting strategic complementarities among activities, such as
crop–livestock integration.
Large households were more likely to adapt, indicating that
additional household labor may facilitate the adoption of more
labor-intensive adaptation options. Large-scale farmers were also
more likely to adapt as a result of greater financial resources and
access to capital, which enable them to invest in more costly
technologies, such as irrigation. Likewise, wealthier households were
more likely to change their planting dates in response to perceived
climate change.
Access to rural services such as extension and credit also
increases the likelihood of adaptation. Farmers with access to
extension services—and who are therefore more likely to have
knowledge of management practices to address climate changes—
were more likely to diversify their portfolios in an effort to reduce
risk. Access to credit also increases the likelihood that farmers will
diversify their portfolios and buy feed supplements for their
livestock. Given that lack of financial resources is one of the major
constraints to adaptation, access to credit enables farmers with
limited financial resources to purchase the necessary inputs and
equipment associated with many adaptation options.
Having secure property rights also increases the probability of
adaptation. With clear property rights farmers are able to make
adaptation decisions involving their land, such as changing the
amount of land under cultivation. Access to fertile soil also increases
the likelihood that farmers will increase the amount of land under
cultivation in response to climate change.
While off-farm employment could present a constraint to
adaptation by reducing time spent managing farms, the results show
that farmers who engage in off-farm activities are more likely to

supplement livestock
feed. This suggests
that expanding
smallholder farmers’
access to off-farm
income sources
increases the
probability that they
will be able to afford
adaptation measures.
The results show
important regional
variation. In the
Limpopo province,
which has a large rural population dependent on agriculture, farmers
were more likely to adapt to climate changes compared with those in
the others provinces. Similarly, households located in regions with
high temperatures were more likely to adapt their farming practices,
particularly by diversifying their portfolios, using irrigation, and
changing planting dates.
Conclusions and Policy Implications
Given that few farmers adjusted their farming practices despite
perceiving changes in climate, governments should facilitate
adaptation by enabling farmers to overcome the barriers reported in
this study. Specifically, policies should ensure that farmers have
access to affordable credit, which would give them greater flexibility
to modify their production strategies in response to climate change.
Because access to water for irrigation increases farmers’ resilience to
climate variability, greater investments in smart irrigation are
needed. Reforming pricing, clearly defining property rights, and
strengthening farm-level managerial capacity should also be
emphasized to promote efficient water use. More importantly, given
that land reform has increased the number of less experienced and
unskilled farmers, extension services need to be expanded with
highly qualified personnel. Additional measures required are
improving off-farm income-earning opportunities, and facilitating a
smooth transition from subsistence to commercial farming.
for fu rther READING
Gbetibouo, G. A., Understanding Farmers’ Perceptions and Adaptations to
Climate Change and Variability: The Case of the Limpopo Basin,
South Africa, IFPRI Discussion Paper (Washington, DC:
International Food Policy Research Institute, forthcoming 2009).
G. A. Gbetibouo (gbetibouo@yahoo.fr) is a Ph.D. student at the Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa at the University of Pretoria, South Africa.
Table 1 Barriers to adaptation in the Limpopo River Basin (% of the respondents)
This series of IFPRI Research Briefs is based on research supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany, under the
project “Food and Water Security under Global Change: Developing Adaptive Capacity with a Focus on Rural Africa,” which forms part of the CGIAR
Challenge Program on Water and Food. Through collaboration with the Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, the Ethiopian Development
Research Institute, the Ethiopian Economics Association, and the University of Hamburg, the project aims to provide policymakers and stakeholders in
Ethiopia and South Africa with tools to better understand and analyze the consequences of global change—in particular climate change—and to form policy
decisions that facilitate adaptation in these countries and beyond.