China makes renewable power play to be world's first green superpower

China tries to throw off image as a global climate criminal with its aims to become the future leader in a low-carbon world

Jonathan Watts
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 10 June 2009 14.34 BST

A game-changing moment could be upon us. In recent years, the world has grown used to condemning China as a climate criminal. But over the next few weeks and months, don't be surprised if you hear the same nation being hailed as the planet's first green superpower.
The State Council, China's cabinet, will soon release the details of a staggeringly large "new energy" programme that could propel the world's biggest greenhouse gas emitter past Europe and the US into a global leader in renewable energy and low-carbon technology.
This is no short-term economic boost or sop for climate change negotiations; it is a long-term investment aimed at making China a dominant force in the global low-carbon economy for decades to come. Power plays do not come much bigger.
The size of the energy stimulus has not yet been revealed, but reports in the domestic media and from foreign diplomats suggest between 1.4 trillion (US$200 bn) and 4.5 trillion yuan (US$600bn) will be invested over the next ten years in nuclear power plants, solar and wind farms, hydroelectric dams, "green transport", "clean coal" and super efficient electric grids.
The consequences will be staggering. If the bigger figure proves correct, China will be spending the equivalent of its 2009 military budget on "new energy" for each of the next ten years. Even the smaller figure would mean that China, which represents just 6 per cent of the global economy, would exceed the amount the entire world invested on new power generating capacity last year, including fossil fuels.
China already makes most of the world's solar panels and wind turbines. Its carmakers, such as BYD, are pushing ahead faster than established Japanese and American rivals to mass produce electric vehicles. Its carbon capture technology and high-efficiency "ultrasupercritical" coal plants are close to the global cutting edge. With the new package, the government will commit itself to developing domestic markets for these "sunrise" industries.
The speed at which the country can move has already been shown in the wind sector, where installed capacity has been doubling every year. According to Changhua Wu, director of the Climate Group's China operations, the pace will be quicker for solar. "They are learning from best practice. It took 15 years to do it in the wind sector. They want to go more quickly now."
The government's targets for wind power have already risen threefold, solar is likely to go up two to fourfold and nuclear sixfold. Overall, China will raise its target for renewables from 15 per cent of total energy by 2020, possibly even surpassing Europe's goal of 20 per cent by that date. By that time, China should also have a super high voltage grid.
If a substantial amount of the new package goes on renewables and efficiency, Julian Wong, an energy analyst at the Center for American Progress in Washington DC, says the potential is enormous.
He says: "If those expectations are fulfilled, China could emerge as the unquestioned global leader in clean energy production, significantly increasing its chances to wean [itself] off coal, and at the same time ushering in an era of sustainable economic growth by exporting these clean-energy technologies to the world."
This is not being done because of international obligations, but as an investment in national security. Renewable energy eases China's dependence on foreign fuel supplies, which are a growing concern. In an age of soft power, asymmetric warfare and carbon anxiety, an investment in solar and wind energy will help the country to stake a claim to the moral high ground.
Todd Stern, the top climate change envoy for President Barack Obama, recently warned that the US could fall behind.
"We need to recognise that if we aren't careful, we may spend the next few years chasing China to do more, but then spend all the years after that chasing them," he said before heading to Beijing for talks with his Chinese counterparts this week.
The US team is pressing China to do more in terms of slowing the growth in emissions. They are right. Regardless of the massive "new energy" investment, the country will remain dependent on coal and pump out more greenhouse gas than other nations for decades to come. True to its ability to produce superlatives and contradictions, China is likely to be both a black and a green superpower at the same time.
But the new energy plans may change the perceptions and parameters of the climate debate. While a proper assesment must wait until the details are released, the stimulus package ought to force Europe and the US to be more ambitious. The world might finally start to see a race to the top rather than the bottom.