China's climate pledge is more terminology than substance

China has set its first ever carbon emission targets, but is still not ready to reveal how far - if at all - it is willing to move off its highly polluting path of growth

Jonathan Watts, Asia environment correspondent
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 22 September 2009 17.43 BST
The "c word" entered the vocabulary of a Chinese president for the first time today, as Hu Jintao promised his country would set its first carbon target for 2020. Overall greenhouse gas emissions will not fall, but the fossil fuels burned in powering each surge of the economy will decline - a cut in so-called carbon intensity.
For the moment, it is a breakthrough of terminology more than substance. But in promising such a goal, Hu has effectively declared that China - the world's biggest polluter - has an important card to play in negotiations towards a global climate change treaty in Copenhagen.
Until now, China has not included carbon emissions in its economic planning, though government officials have been working on a new methodology, based primarily on existing targets for energy efficiency.
How significant this new target proves to be will depend on the amount. During his speech to the United Nations, Hu coyly kept that figure close to his chest, saying only that China would reduce the quantity of its carbon emissions relative to GDP by a "notable margin".
This was the highlight of what was otherwise a summary of measures that Beijing has already announced to address climate change, including tree-planting campaigns, a commitment to supporting the developing world, and efforts to raise the amount of renewables in the energy mix to 15% by 2020.
The Chinese media had been primed to expect a decisive move away from business as usual. This did not come, but the presentation and language were noteworthy.
Environmental groups said the adoption of a carbon-intensity target would help encourage domestic industries to reduce their use of coal, which currently accounts for 70% of the China's energy.
"People in China will finally start saying 'what is a carbon economy?'," said Yang Fuqiang, director of global climate solutions at the WWF Beijing office. He predicted the move would bolster plans for carbon trading and moves to introduce a carbon tax.
The key, however, will be how far China moves away from its current energy-intensive model of growth.
If the state continues its current five-year pledge to reduce carbon intensity by 20%, it is estimated that China could save 4.5 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide between 2005 and 2020 - a cut from business-as-usual of more than 50% - and a globally significant amount of carbon.
A 2020 energy intensity target could also pave the way for the government to set a goal for China's overall emissions to peak, a key milestone. A recent study by the country's top energy thinktank estimated this could come between 2030 and 2035 in a best-case scenario.
But at a state level, this has not been made public. It is likely to be used as a bargaining chip. China is pressing Europe and the United States to set bolder targets for reducing their emissions and providing money and technology to the developing world.
China has taken significant steps in the past five years to become more carbon efficient, but its economy is growing so fast these gains have been swamped.
There remains much talk of the need to move to a low-carbon economy, but as yet few specifics. In the delicate choreography of the negotiations, the world's biggest emitter of carbon is not yet ready to reveal how far, if at all, it is willing to move off its current - highly polluting - path of growth.