Flights of fancy over airline emissions

The Guardian, Wednesday 23 September 2009
I am really glad that Willie Walsh, British Airways' chief executive, has promised to deliver a 50% reduction in global aviation CO2 emissions over the next 41 years (Airlines vow to halve emissions by 2050, 22 September), as this means I can consider immediate retirement. Sadly, neither event is likely to happen. Forecasts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other reliable sources suggest that global aviation industry emissions will rise to 2.4bn tonnes in 2050 from 610m in 2005. While aircraft and operational efficiency could improve by an average of 1.5% a year to 2020, it is likely to slow to around 1% as technology matures. There are simply no blended-wing hydrogen-fuelled aircraft ready to fly to the airlines' rescue, let alone one recent utterly bonkers suggestion of nuclear-powered planes.
The key word from Mr Walsh that exposes his claims is "net". Carbon offsets are a significant part of the aviation industry's menu, but are no substitute for real cuts in emissions. The use of biofuels in aircraft is, despite a masterly PR campaign featuring Boeing and Branson, the Batman and Robin of aviation's greenwash hype, unlikely to deliver the promised "10% by 2017" contribution. There are no sustainable biomass feedstocks or production facilities that could produce a safe kerosene alternative with a zero carbon footprint or less by then.
We know the aviation industry dislikes fuel taxes and campaigns vociferously against the proxy carbon tax regime that inclusion in the European emission trading scheme represents, despite pretending not to. Only the extremely credulous will believe that airlines willingly want to raise ticket prices to reflect even today's low market price of €14 per tonne of CO2, sending themselves an invoice for more than €8.5bn in the process. But it needs to, as a minimum, and right now if we are ever to get aviation's runaway emissions under control.
Jeffrey Gazzard
Board member, Aviation Environment Federation