Thursday, 1 October 2009

New York Times columnist thinks Red China is now Green China. Oh really?

Thomas Friedman may have been too busy sipping tea with technocrats than beathing polluted air in Shanxi and Beijing
How green is China? Seems an odd thing to ask on the eve of a huge anniversary of red communist power. But, according to Thomas Friedman, the matter is settled.
The author and New York Times columnist argued this week that the most important global development of the past 18 months was that Red China became Green China.
Now I read Friedman's columns and most of the time I am struck with admiration and envy at his ability to provoke and convince. But I suspect he has spent too long sipping tea with Dalian's technocrats and not enough time breathing the air in Shanxi, Henan and Beijing.
The politburo's decision to promote clean energy, he argues, is the 21st century equivalent of the Soviet Union's 1957 launch of Sputnik, which convinced the United States that it was falling behind in missile technology.
China's renewable energy promotion policies are impressive and – if developed further – could transform the balance of power in the world. Friedman is absolutely right to prod the US to respond. But colour-coding such a big and diverse country is not so simple.
Industrially, China is predominantly black and will remain so for decades. Coal consumption has grown as fast as renewable energy. Despite a huge investment in wind, solar and hydro, China continues to depend on coal for 70% of its power. Despite gains in the efficiency of thermal power stations, the country's carbon emissions are the highest in the world and will probably double again in the next 20 years.
Environmentally, China has never been greyer. In the current surge of urbanisation and dam building, billions of tonnes of concrete have been poured onto farm fields and into rivers. A surge in car ownership has added to the haze that obscures the skies in most cities for much of the year.
And politically, China remains uncompromisingly red in ways that will be all too evident tomorrow when PLA tanks and missiles parade past Mao's portrait in Tiananmen Square for the 60th anniversary of Communist party rule.
Yes, there will be splashes of green and not just because of the military uniforms. Twice as many trees are being planted in China as the rest of the world put together. But the same country is also importing far more illegally logged timber than anywhere else.
All of which is to say, Beijing is doing great things for the environment. But it also continues to join wealthy nations in doing even more damage.
Perhaps a "Green China" can emerge from the haze to lead a low-carbon revolution. I certainly hope so. But for the moment, the country is too big, too fast-changing and too uncertain to paint into a corner, or a colour.