Barack Obama's trip to China expected to set the tone for talks in Copenhagen

China unlikely to show its hand during president's visit while US climate legislation stalls in Senate
Jonathan Watts, Asia environment correspondent
guardian.co.uk, Friday 13 November 2009 18.04 GMT
The leaders of the world's two biggest greenhouse gas emitters – Barack Obama and Hu Jintao – are to meet on Tuesday in Beijing, in one of the most significant moments leading up to the world summit on climate change in Copenhagen next month.
Agreement between the US and China on key issues would breathe new life into the moribund negotiations towards a global climate deal. But sources are downplaying the chances of a breakthrough, suggesting another blow to the talks.
Instead, modest progress may be announced in the fields of technology co-operation and private sector initiatives to move towards a low-carbon economy.
In the run-up to Copenhagen, the US negotiator Todd Stern had hoped for a series of bilateral steps that might lead the world's major polluters into an international deal. These two nations, which together account for 40% of global emissions, will make or break the summit.
China is moving towards setting its first "carbon intensity" target, which would curb – but not cut – the pollution emitted as its economy grows. The target is thought to be about a 40-45% reduction relative to economic growth by 2020. But China is unlikely to declare its hand yet.
There remains a big gap in the demands made by each nation.
The US wants China to sign up to specific emissions commitments; China insists they should be voluntary, as they are under the current Kyoto climate change treaty.
China's public position is that rich nations should cut emissions by 40% by 2020. Privately, negotiators acknowledge this is unrealistic, but they want the US to go much further than the 17% cut approved by the House but blocked in the Senate.
If the US president says he is prepared to push for a higher target, some observers believe Hu may give him a political "gift" to take back.
"China understands the political system in the US. We know it's difficult for Obama. If he wants the Senate to do more, he needs to be able to say China will do more than people expect," said Yang Fuqiang, the director of global climate change solutions at the Worldwide Fund for Nature.
Yang identified several possible cards that China might play either during Obama's visit or at Copenhagen. Earlier this year, it withheld a planned announcement on a higher renewable energy target so that this could be used at a more politically opportune moment. Other major shifts in its energy mix are the likely doubling or tripling of nuclear power generation, greater use of natural gas – China has recently discovered some major fields inside its territory – and in the most optimistic scenario, a pledge to improve its energy or carbon efficiency by 20% for each of its five-year plans until 2020.
"All these measure together add up to emissions reduction of 4-4.5 gigatonnes over the period 2005 to 2020," said Yang. "This is the opportunity. But the condition is that Obama uses the power of the presidency to persuade Congress to do more."
Others believe this is overly optimistic. "Obama's dream scenario would be to come to China and make it look like he saves the world from China so that he could go back and convince his Congress to back him up in Copenhagen. But why should China go along with that scenario. The US target is pathetic," said another Chinese observer, who declined to be identified.
With dim prospects of a legally binding deal at Copenhagen or a US climate bill passing the Senate, others say Hu has little incentive to make concessions during Obama's visit.
But the meeting itself will be significant.
"There will be a lot of public stuff about cooperation and in private they will get to understand each other better. It will be an opportunity to show that China is doing a lot. That will help in the Senate," said Deborah Seligsohn, a principal advisor to the World Resources Institute's Climate and Energy Programme in Beijing. "Fundamentally, the objective is for Obama and Hu to speak face to face. Given that the specific issue is trust, that will help a lot."
China's emissions have grown rapidly in recent years along with the economy, but it has one of the world's most ambitious renewable energy programmes and is on course to meet a self-set target to improve energy efficiency by 20% between 2005 and 2010.
The world's number one emitter is adamant that it should not have to take actions that restrict economic growth because rich nations have a far greater historical and per capita responsibility for the carbon in the atmosphere. It wants wealthy countries like the US to provide technology and finance that will help developing nations to ease the impact of climate change and move towards a low-carbon economy.
The two governments signed a memorandum of understanding in July that identified possible areas of collaboration on research and technology. But efforts to flesh out that agreement have proved tougher than expected.
There have been wrangles over how much each nation should pay for a proposed joint research centre on clean energy. The US energy secretary, Steven Chu, who is travelling with Obama, is expected to sign an agreement next week, but it is unclear if the countries will split the costs down the middle.
While business deals and joint projects may be announced to develop green buildings, electric cars and smart power grids, there is less confidence that a deal can be struck in the key area of "clean" coal technology. The US has proposed closer collaboration in this field, which is vital given the heavy reliance of both economies on coal. But China has been cautious about such overtures, perhaps because it is poised to move ahead of the United States in several key processes, including integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) in power stattions and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS).
If these two key players are unable to resolve their differences, there is a danger that the Copenhagen talks will suffer the same fate as the Kyoto protocol, which was handicapped by the absence of a clear commitment by China and rejection by the US Congress.
There is scope for more progress this time. During the UN climate summit in September, Hu said China was prepared to reduce the carbon intensity of its economy by a "notable margin" by 2020. Beijing has a figure up its sleeve. Government-related thinktanks are proposing targets of 40-45% by 2020 and 78-80% by 2050.
"I think they will announce something soon," said a source in the Energy Research Institute. "The upper end of our recommendation is 44%. But whether they will adopt it depends on their assessment of how fast the economy will grow."
Whether this figure will be high enough and announced early enough to shake the rust from the Senate is uncertain.
"At some point, China must produce a number. Assuming its good enough, then it should be recorded in an international agreement," said Charlie McElwee, a Shanghai-based American lawyer specialising in environmental issues. "Without that, I think there will be a pushback from the Senate."
For the moment, it is unclear even if the two leaders will attend Copenhagen. Expectations have been pushed down so far recently that leaders appear reluctant to invest political capital in the talks. Whether Obama's charisma and Hu's drive for "scientific development" can salvage at least a political agreement will be much clearer after next week.