Carbon dioxide emissions 'cut by recession'

Global greenhouse gas emissions will be 9 per cent below what they were expected to be in 2012 as a result of the recession, researchers said today.

Published: 11:24AM GMT 13 Nov 2009
But the lower levels will delay by just 21 months the moment the world reaches the temperature rises predicted to cause ''dangerous'' climate change if ''business as usual'' emissions resume after economic recovery, they warned.
The researchers at the Economic and Social Research Council's (ESRC) centre for climate change economics and policy said that if the downturn deteriorates into a depression as bad as the one seen in the 1930s, emissions will be 23 per cent lower than they would have been without the recession.

But that crisis would only delay by five years the point at which global temperatures rise by more than 2C above pre-industrial levels - a threshold beyond which many scientists believe the impacts of climate change will be much more severe.
Until the recession, global emissions had been relentlessly rising and have been increasing at a higher rate in the past decade than previously.
The report from the centre, hosted by the University of Leeds and the London School of Economics (LSE), also shows that UK emissions will be 9% lower in 2012 than they would have been without the recession.
But the 9 per cent lower level of greenhouse gases will only be delivered if the downward trend in emissions per unit of economic output continues as a result of policies and investment in energy efficiency, the report said.
A reduction in investments in energy efficiency as a result of the financial crisis by British businesses would limit the extent of the environmental silver lining provided by the recession.
Professor Andy Gouldson, co-author of the report at the University of Leeds, said: ''Our results show that although the downturn is likely to cause a measurable decrease in global emissions, it will only delay temporarily the relentless rise in emissions that we have seen over the past few decades.
''If we return to 'business as usual' emissions after the economic crisis is over, the profound and severe risks of climate change impacts will continue to grow.
''So the global downturn does not remove the urgent need for a strong agreement to be reached at the United Nations climate change conference in Copenhagen in December.''
The research was published as US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned next month's international summit was not likely to produce a legally-binding treaty to cut the greenhouse gases which cause climate change.
She insisted the US, which has been blamed in some quarters for holding up progress on a new climate deal, is committed to creating a framework agreement at the talks which will lead to a full legal treaty.
Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd is the latest in a string of world leaders who have agreed to attend the talks in Copenhagen in a bid to get the best possible outcome from the conference.