Monday 14 December 2009

Copenhagen summit: How major blocs have fared and what they want

guardian.co.uk, Sunday 13 December 2009 19.20 GMT
European Union
Last week: The EU ended the week with a bang, upping its offer of climate aid to poorer nations to €2.4bn a year from next month. But the bloc's trump card – an upgrade from a 20% to a 30% cut to its emissions by 2020 – remained unplayed. Despite the stir it caused, chief negotiator Artur Runge-Metzger said the "Danish text" was "just a piece of paper".
This week: The EU will certainly need to table the 30% offer if the talks are to progress. It will also have to calm the fears of eastern European countries fearful of the costs and soothe the egos of the leaders of the big nations who will want all of the glory of success (or none of the blame). Levies on international aviation and shipping, supported by some EU nations, may help.
US
Last week: The US delegation aimed to show it was serious about taking action to stop global warming, despite the uncertainty of getting a law through congress. But in comments on funding the fight against climate change chief negotiator Todd Stern lived up to his name: "I don't envision public funds, certainly not from the United States, going to China." He also said the US, the biggest carbon emitter in history, did not owe reparations.
This week: The US will fiercely fight off pressure to increase its offers on both emissions cuts and long-term funding. It will stress its 17% target by 2020 on 2005 levels is more than the EU's over the same period. It does seem poised to offer up to $1.5bn for immediate assistance to poor countries.
China
Last week: Vice foreign minister He Yafei ripped into Todd Stern. "I don't want to say the gentleman is ignorant. I think he lacks common sense or is extremely irresponsible". Earlier top climate negotiator Su Wei lambasted rich nations for offering an immediate fund of a mere $10bn a year for developing nations to deal with climate change.
This week: The Chinese delegation are desperate to finalise a document so prime minister Wen Jiabao can avoid being leaned on in a last-minute huddle. When that happened at a recent summit in Europe, Wen was so unhappy with the pressure being put on him to offer more on curbing emissions that he ended the meeting prematurely.
Rest of the world
Last week: The world's 6 billion poor, represented by the 133 countries in the G77 plus China group, the 42 LDCs (least developed countries) and the 47-strong Association of Small Island States (Aosis), began with three objectives: to defend the Kyoto protocol, the only legal treaty that requires developed countries to reduce their emissions; to make sure that rich countries reduce their emissions; and to secure around $400bn a year by 2020.
This week: There is still no long-term money on the table, and the chances of getting really ambitious emissions cut agreements from the rich are minimal. They appear to have won the immediate battle to save the Kyoto protocol, and the poorest and most forested countries could secure more money than others; but there are fears that the eventual cash on offer will not be guaranteed, will be conditional and not additional to existing aid.