Obama Efforts Face Diplomatic Hurdles

As Obama Reaches Out to World Leaders, Challenges Await at Home
By STEPHEN POWER and JONATHAN WEISMAN
On the same day that President Barack Obama decided to commit 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan, he reached out to global leaders in a series of phone calls and a White House meeting. When he finished talking about his military decision, he pivoted to another issue: the world's climate.
In a meeting with Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, a videoconference with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, and phone calls to the leaders of France, Russia, China, Germany, India and Poland, Mr. Obama pointed to his administration's efforts to use regulatory power to cut greenhouse-gas emissions, and made a pitch for action at the global summit in Copenhagen. After that series of calls, the White House declared that the president expected something meaningful could come from the summit.
When Mr. Obama journeys to the Danish capital Dec. 18, he will be hard-pressed to satisfy the desires of other nations for the U.S. to commit to deep cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions, or for a long-term deal to subsidize developing nations' efforts to install low-carbon energy technology and to preserve forests. Mr. Obama may offer precise numbers and pledges, but he doesn't have the votes for legislation to put them into effect.
The president's immediate challenge is convincing 60 senators to support a proposal to require sharp cuts in U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050, and institute a system that requires businesses to pay for the right to emit such gases. Most Republicans oppose the cap-and-trade bill, as do some members of Mr. Obama's own party.
Sen. James Webb (D., Va.), whose state depends on coal for 45% of its electricity, says legislation backed by Mr. Obama to require companies to pay for their greenhouse-gas emissions would lead to a "huge bureaucracy." Mr. Webb drove home his concerns about the Copenhagen summit in a public letter warning Mr. Obama not to commit the U.S. to a nationwide emission-reduction program. "As you well know from your time in the Senate, only specific legislation agreed upon in the Congress, or a treaty ratified by the Senate, could actually create such a commitment on behalf of our country," Mr. Webb wrote.
Climate politics are both national and global. Mr. Obama faces challenges in both arenas.
In June, the House of Representatives pushed through a climate measure by a seven-vote margin. But in the Senate, Republicans and Democrats from industrial states have balked, forcing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to delay action until next spring. The sour economy and questions about the behavior of prominent climate scientists raised by emails stolen from a British climate laboratory have complicated the politics of passing legislation.
A recent survey of 1,500 adults in the U.S. by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press found 35% of respondents see global warming as a very serious problem today, down from 44% in April 2008. The poll found 56% of those surveyed agree that the U.S. should join other countries to address global climate change, but it found an erosion of support for the idea that human activities are the main cause of warmer temperatures.
"The disposition is to want to do something, but it's not as sharp as it would be in a different economic climate," says Andrew Kohut, the center's director.
At the same time, Mr. Obama is juggling rivalries among other major nations in an effort to forge a climate deal that doesn't put the U.S. economy at risk.
China will be the key to any world-wide climate deal. In private meetings with Chinese President Hu Jintao on Nov. 17, Mr. Obama won some promises, especially on a key issue for the U.S.: China's willingness to allow verification of its claims to curbing greenhouse-gas emissions. A joint statement that day by the two presidents included language on the issue that Mr. Obama wanted.
A little-noticed tete-a-tete with Premier Wen Jiabao the next day -- overshadowed by Mr. Obama's dash to the Great Wall -- may have been more crucial, a senior administration official said. Mr. Wen wanted Mr. Obama to outline his proposed commitments to cutting emissions before China put forward a proposal. The U.S. president assured the Chinese premier that he would lay his cards on the table soon.
On Nov. 24, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh arrived in Washington for the first official state visit of the Obama presidency. Mr. Obama told Mr. Singh that China and the U.S. would put firm climate targets on the table. But if India stood on the sidelines, no progress would be made.
Messrs. Obama and Singh signed a joint statement committing to cooperation on climate change. The next day, Mr. Obama announced specific emissions targets he would personally take to Copenhagen. The Chinese put their targets on the table the following day, and a week later, India followed suit.
China and India aren't offering to cut emissions, as Mr. Obama has done. They are proposing to make their economies more energy-efficient -- which could mean their total emissions grow as their economies grow. That could further complicate the task of winning over skeptics in Congress.
China's offer to reduce carbon emissions relative to gross domestic product -- an efficiency measure -- "really doesn't mean a lot," says Sen. Webb. "I don't think China is a developing country in the sense we would want to use the word right now."
Write to Stephen Power at stephen.power@wsj.com and Jonathan Weisman at jonathan.weisman@wsj.com